About That Shocking Iowa Poll

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The results of a poll taken by The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa show former President Donald Trump with a staggering 18-point lead over President Joe Biden. This is very bad news for the Biden campaign.

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Swing states are in play, as usual, and Biden may be in more trouble than we thought. 

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll of 632 likely voters shows Trump leading Biden 50% to 32%. The survey included third-party candidates, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9%.

Pollster Frank Luntz said the data should not be taken lightly. He took a look back to 2020.

“In 2020, Trump won Iowa by +8 points,” Luntz tweeted. “Now, Iowa’s best pollster shows him up +18 in the state — which is bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan.”

He noted that pollster’s “final poll in October had Trump up +7, and he won by +8.”

The question since Trump was convicted in the hush money trial in Manhattan has been whether or not the convictions will affect voter support. In the Iowa poll, the opposite has proven to be true. 

The poll was conducted between June 9 to 14, which was after Trump's trial. Trump's lead is well outside the 3.9% margin of error. 76% of likely Trump voters say they have made up their minds and are not persuadable. 81% of likely Biden voters say the same.

Here's the thing - Biden's approval numbers are in the dumpster. He has a 28% approval rating and just 15% of young voters under 35 approve of him. These are devastating numbers, especially five months out from election day. Young voters were a crucial part of Biden's election in 2020.

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Iowa has been a classic swing state. Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012 with Biden on the ticket. Trump won Iowa in 2016 by about 10% over Hillary Clinton. Trump also won Iowa in 2020 against Joe Biden. 

Iowa carries six electoral votes. These poll numbers track with a wave of positive polling news for Trump. According to Real Clear Politics, Trump holds a lead over Biden of 0.8%. For comparison, at this point in 2020, Joe Biden was ahead by 8.8%. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was ahead by 5.8%. Those are national poll results. This is a state poll - the state of Iowa. We know candidates win elections state by state. State polls are a better indication of the state of the race.

Trump's lead was 48-33 in February, indicating the president's support in Iowa ticked up since he was found guilty on 34 counts weeks ago.

Trump won the state 53-45 back in 2020, and his campaign is confident it will dominate again in a few months.

Pollster Ann Selzer noted that the numbers were going in a direction that 'is consistently downward' for Biden. Selzer's polls are considered the gold standard in polling.

Iowans overwhelmingly say that the country is going in the wrong direction. 

Third-party candidates don't score well in Iowa.

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who says he has qualified for Iowa’s presidential ballot, earns 9%. Another 2% of likely Iowa voters pick Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 3% say they would vote for someone else, 1% would not vote and 3% are not sure. 

The poll found a sharp difference between independent men voters and independent women voters.

Among men who say they are independent, 54% have a favorable view of Trump and 43% have an unfavorable view.

That’s reversed for independent women, just 41% of whom say they have a favorable view of Trump compared with 58% who have an unfavorable view.  

If this poll holds, with Biden at 32%, it would be the worst Democrat showing in Iowa since the 1924 general election, one hundred years ago. 


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David Strom 12:40 PM | July 23, 2024
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