If the 2024 presidential election was held today, Donald Trump would likely win. President Biden and his re-election campaign are very worried that the election will be close and Biden will be denied a second term by voters.
It's very possible. Polls are not always the best indication of what will happen in elections but they have consistently shown Trump in the lead over Joe Biden on just about every important issue for voters. Trump is ahead in all the battleground states that will probably decide the election.
I'll note that Biden is inching up in Wisconsin. The latest poll by Bloomberg/Morning Consult has Trump and Biden tied at 45% each in Michigan. We'll know soon enough if there is a slow change happening now or not. I tend to be skeptical this far out from election day about polls but they are an indication of how voters are sizing up the candidates. YMMV.
In a close election, independent voters are crucial. Without their support, neither major party can win. Third-party candidates have emerged this cycle because it is a perfect storm. Voters are dissatisfied with a re-match between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Voters in both parties wanted different choices but that has not played out in the party primaries. Biden and Trump have won primaries handily this year. They will be the candidates on the ballot in November.
Team Biden is panicked. An independent candidate like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is doing pretty well, all things considered. He has polled as high as 20% in some polls. If he can maintain a decent percentage of voter support, he can throw the election to Trump. Democrats know that RFK, Jr. takes votes from Biden, not Trump. Some conservatives may turn to Kennedy because of his opposition to the COVID-19 vaccines and his support of a secure border but there is little else to bring him support from Republican voters.
Kennedy has instant name recognition unlike more fringe candidates running as alternatives to Biden, such as Cornel West and Jill Stein. This time around, it is Kennedy who is feared as the spoiler in the presidential election.
Imagine a Democrat campaign so nervous about the strength of its candidate that it shoves a Kennedy out of the way, causing him to run as an independent. It's hard to imagine the shenanigans the Democrats have pulled off so far to make sure Sleepy Joe wins the nomination. Kennedy is polling better than any independent candidate since Ross Perot in 1992.
Joe Biden's St. Patrick's Day celebration at the White House included as many Kennedy family members as he could round up. There was a photo op with Biden and all the Kennedys surrounding him. The message was that they supported Old Yeller, not their family member, RFK, Jr.
What an incredible photo. The entire Kennedy family pictured with President Biden this St. Patrick’s Day—except, of course, one Kennedy named RFK Jr. These are the real Kennedys. pic.twitter.com/pxeavETO3z
— Shadow / NO DM !!!💙💙💙 (@ConananMaloy) March 19, 2024
I chuckled about that "real Kennedy" remark. Look at his name, Einstein. The split within the family happened over the COVID-19 vaccine. Many of the Kennedy family work in the Biden administration. This is political for them, not principled stands. Some of RFK, Jr.'s political opinions are far more progressive than some of the other, older Kennedys.
Axios reports that the Biden campaign and the DNC have put together a team of staffers and consultants dedicated to destroying Kennedy's campaign.
The DNC argues that RFK Jr. is a "stalking horse" for Trump who shares a megadonor — businessman Tim Mellon — with the former president. Mellon has given $20 million to Kennedy's super PAC and $15 million to Trump's MAGA Inc. this election cycle.
- The White House also notes that the Kennedy family — royalty in Democratic politics — has been critical of RFK Jr.'s bid.
- Maria Shriver, the niece of the late Robert F. Kennedy, was invited to Biden's State of the Union speech, and Biden posed for a photo with 50 Kennedy family members on St. Patrick's Day. The not-so-subtle message: The Kennedys support Biden over one of their own.
Kennedy family attend White House event and offer lavish praise on Biden claiming he is a champion for women’s rights.
— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) March 19, 2024
Dozens of members of the Kennedy family attended in a clear snub to RFK Jr, who they have publicly criticized due to his outspokenness on vaccines.
Biden was… pic.twitter.com/PkRSDWFOxE
The likely possibility that this team would come to fruition has been floated in political reporting for weeks. The Kennedy clan hasn't even come out in support of Secret Service protection granted to RFK, Jr., though he has requested it several times. DHS refuses to approve his requests. Given the family history and threats Kennedy says he is receiving, this is inexcusable.
Is Kennedy a "stalking horse" for Trump? That is the accusation from the DNC because Trump and Kennedy share a megadonor. Tim Mellon has contributed $20M to Kennedy's super PAC and $15M to MAGA, Inc., a Trump super PAC.
Biden's campaign is running circles around Trump's when it comes to fundraising. Biden is flush with cash. What is he so worried about? Well, his team realizes that Trump usually is not the most funded candidate and yet he can win without that as he did in 2016.
Kennedy may find his campaign's coffers more filled. He chose a very wealthy 38-year-old woman as his running mate. She is a seasoned big donor to progressive candidates and causes. Nicole Shanahan has Google money.
Shanahan, 38, is a California lawyer and philanthropist who’s never held elected office. She leads Bia-Echo Foundation, an organization she founded to direct money toward issues including women’s reproductive science, criminal justice reform and environmental causes.
Formerly married to Google co-founder Sergey Brin, Shanahan is deeply enmeshed in the Silicon Valley technology culture that Kennedy frequently critiques.
When conservatives who are thinking about voting for Kennedy do a little reading about Shanahan, they may re-think their decision. Kennedy chose her because she is young and can appeal to young voters. Her life story is compelling but she is bat poop progressive in her political views.
Rory Kennedy, the youngest of RFK, Jr.'s siblings, said his campaign can put Trump back in the White House.
“I think this election is going to happen in a handful of states, and the votes are going to be very small in terms of what is going to elect the next president of the United States. And so siphoning votes [away from] Biden could most definitely lead to Trump’s election,” Ms. Kennedy, a documentary filmmaker and the youngest daughter of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, said Monday on MSNBC.
It's one thing to disagree with an ambition of a sibling but it's another thing when you are a member of a famous family and air the family's dirty laundry in public. Kennedy's siblings don't have to encouage their brother or vote for him in November but this alliance just seems selfish and self-serving. Shame on them.
