We are entering the part of the presidential primary season where polls start to move a little bit and things get interesting. Fox Business released some poll results on Sunday and one surprise is what is happening in South Carolina.

In South Carolina, Ron DeSantis has fallen to third place, behind Trump and the new second place candidate, Nikki Haley. I’ve been waiting for both Nikki Haley and Tim Scott to start to register higher in the polls, especially in their home state of South Carolina. South Carolina is an important early primary state. Usually after South Carolina, we begin to see the field narrow. Remember in 2016, it was in South Carolina that Jeb! Bush dropped out of the race. He began a primary campaign with a war chest of $100 million, a famous name, and a successful record as Governor of Florida. Like DeSantis, he was able to appeal to voters not typically Republican voters. I’m not saying that DeSantis may end up being Jeb! but I am saying that it’s time to sharpen some observations. I’m still hoping history doesn’t repeat itself. I want to win in 2024 and I don’t believe that we will if Trump is the party’s nominee. However, if the other candidates can’t catch fire, logic tells us that Trump is a happy man right now. Things are going just as he wanted – a large field of candidates benefit him. He expects to be the nominee and he’s angry that he has to work for it.

Conducted July 15-19, 2023, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox Business Poll includes interviews with South Carolina registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file and spoke with live interviewers on landlines and cellphones. Respondents were screened to identify 808 likely participants in the 2024 South Carolina Republican primary. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage.

The new Fox Business poll was released Sunday and Trump has a 34-point lead in South Carolina. 48% of primary voters polled back Trump. 51% say they will definitely vote in the February 24 primary. More than half of the voters polled think he’s the candidate most likely to beat Biden. In her home state, Nikki Haley is the second candidate favored in the poll but she is way back at 14%. Ron DeSantis has dropped to 13% and Tim Scott is at 10%. The other candidates were in single digits.

The three-way contest in South Carolina to be the non-Trump candidate is between Haley, DeSantis, and Scott. Trump’s supporters are “very conservative (57%), voters under age 45 (55%), voters without a college degree (53%), rural voters (52%), and White evangelicals (51%).” The problem for Trump is that in 2016, white women in the suburbs helped deliver President Trump the White House. Those voters switched to Biden in 2020. There is no indication that Trump is winning them back for 2024. Like it or not, he can’t win without them. No Republican candidate can.

An important finding in the poll is that voters think if a candidate doesn’t show up to debate the others, it is a sign of weakness. I think we’ll have a better handle on the race after the first debate on August 23. Trump said on Sunday Morning Futures on July 16 that he had not decided if he will attend the debate. He did the same thing in 2015 when he didn’t want to do any more debates and held competing events instead. That may have worked in 2015 but voters now think it is disrespectful and a sign of weakness. By a 2-1 margin, South Carolina primary voters say it is weakness. Majorities of Haley voters (73%) and DeSantis voters (71%) say the same thing. A plurality of Trump voters agree (46% weakness vs. 40% strength) so he should pay attention to that.

The seven candidates who have met the polling criteria after the Fox Business poll are Trump, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Pence, Haley, Scott, and Christie. Each of them reached 1% or higher in at least two qualifying national polls and two qualifying state polls from separate states. They must also meet fundraising criteria and sign a pledge to support the Republican nominee in order to meet all the requirements set by the RNC. Donor threshold requirements have been met by Trump, DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Christie, and Ramaswamy. Notice that Pence is not on that list yet.