Ready or not, the 2024 Republican presidential primary season is starting. So far only one Republican candidate has jumped in and he’s holding a campaign rally on January 28 in South Carolina, an early primary state.

Donald Trump is making his first public appearance of his 2024 presidential run since announcing his candidacy in November, his campaign announced Tuesday. Senator Lindsey Graham and Governor Henry McMaster will join Trump at the State House in Columbia. Trump will unveil his campaign’s state leadership team.

The South Carolina primary holds an outsized influence in Republican and Democrat presidential politics. As one of the crucial first states, a win in South Carolina can make a presidential campaign. We need only look back to the 2020 campaign of Joe Biden. He was down and out by the time the South Carolina primary arrived. It was make or break time. Rep. Jim Clyburn was able to deliver a victory for Biden and he was able to stay in the race. The rest is history. In 2016, after primary contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump won South Carolina which pushed him into front-runner status.

Democrats are taking steps to make South Carolina their first primary in 2024, with Biden’s support. Democrat leaders look at Iowa, the traditional first lead-off state, as too white to represent all of the electorate. The Republicans have chosen to keep the traditional sequence of the first three states – Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Trump announced his candidacy in November, very early for an announcement, and he did so to keep the field cleared. Since then, he has not held any campaign-style events outside of his home at Mar-a-Lago. That is also where he announced his candidacy in November.

Two South Carolina Republicans, former Governor Nikki Haley, and Senator Tim Scott, have been mentioned as potential candidates in 2024. When the time comes, I don’t see either one of them running in this cycle.

A new Morning Consult poll released Wednesday shows Trump with a solid lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, rumored to be his strongest rival. Trump has a 17 point lead in a potential match-up.

NEW: Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary

Donald Trump: 48%
Ron DeSantis: 31%
Mike Pence: 8%
Liz Cheney: 3%
Nikki Haley: 2%
Ted Cruz: 2%
Greg Abbott: 1%
Kristi Noem: 1%
Mike Pompeo: 1%
Tim Scott: 1%
Glenn Youngkin: 0%
Someone Else: 1% https://t.co/4CBfh5hte0 pic.twitter.com/8lDIruFCoC

— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) January 18, 2023

A Morning Consult poll released Wednesday showed Trump with 48 percent support among potential Republican primary voters, followed by DeSantis with 31 percent. Trump’s front-runner position differs from some polls since the November midterm elections, which have shown DeSantis closing the gap with Trump or taking a lead in some cases.

Trump’s support in Morning Consult polls over the past month has stayed between 45 and 50 percent, while DeSantis has hovered around 30 percent.

Among Trump voters in the most recent poll, DeSantis is comfortably the second choice, with 44 percent backing the Florida governor. About 20 percent would support Pence, and 7 percent would back Cruz.

Just over a third of DeSantis supporters would vote for Trump as their second choice, while 14 percent would support Pence and 13 percent would back Haley.

Trump’s favorability rating among potential Republican primary voters has improved during the past month. 77 percent have a favorable view of him. Potential voters, by a margin of 7 in 10, have a favorable view of DeSantis. 11 percent said they view DeSantis unfavorably. 23 percent said they view Trump unfavorably.

The poll did show that DeSantis would perform somewhat better against President Biden in a hypothetical general election match-up than Trump would. DeSantis led Biden by 3 points, 44 percent to 41 percent, while Biden led Trump by 3 points, 43 percent to 40 percent.

The poll was conducted from Jan. 13 to 15 among 829 potential Republican primary voters. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.

It’s important to note that this is a rather small poll sample. It’s of “potential” voters. The important measure for many Republicans this time around is that DeSantis polls such that he can beat Joe Biden. Trump has not.

It’s very, very early yet. There will be a bazillion polls from now until the 2024 election. It’s just interesting to note where we start out.