Will a payroll crisis impact the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the middle of a war and a currency collapse? Either the US or Israel has decided to find out.
Earlier today, one or both of the forces targeted the data center that serves the IRGC's bank. The strike came after Iran threatened banking centers in neighboring states, but it's not clear whether this strike is a direct response to that threat. The hit on the Bank Sepah data center will disrupt payrolls for the rank and file, who may not be terribly inclined to fight much longer anyway:
🚨 Breaking: The main data center of Bank Sepah, Iran's largest bank, was attacked tonight. The bank pays the salaries to all regime forces. pic.twitter.com/NFqHT4dgoh
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) March 11, 2026
The data center of Iran's state-run Bank Sepah was hit by a strike in Tehran on Wednesday, The Jerusalem Post learned.
The disruption at the bank, which is largely responsible for paying the salaries of Iran's military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is expected to prevent it from paying salaries for a period, forcing it to find alternative solutions. ...
The attack occured while the bank was processing salary payments for the military, the outlet added.
On Tuesday, both Bank Sepah, and another state-run institution Bank Melli, had services disrupted in an apparent cyber attack. The disruptions continued on Wednesday, with online banking inoperable, and only card-based services running, Iran International stated.
A hit on the data center will put an end to card transactions as well. So much for carrying the Khamenei Express card and not leaving home without it. It might take the Iranians a while to restore those services, assuming they can do so at all under the current barrage from the US and Israel on their military and industrial infrastructure. The lack of compensation at this moment may lead the IRGC's enlistees to consider whether the risks are worth continuing.
We already have some anecdotal evidence of desertions on the rise:
🚨JUST IN: An IRGC Basij member records himself QUITTING, he says Iranian Islamic regime is DONE:
— Morse Report (@MorseReport) March 11, 2026
"Everyone is GONE or LEAVING! I'm going home! It seems the regime is FINISHED and we should surrender." pic.twitter.com/AaOUaF47uO
How did the bank make payroll this long? The collapse of the rial led to the massive protests in January that pushed the regime to massacre unarmed civilians by the thousands. The IRGC, however, has access to hard currency through its oil sales. Those have continued even during the war, thanks to Chinese ships that alert Iranians to let them pass through the Strait of Hormuz:
Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers.
As Gulf Arab oil producers from Saudi Arabia to Iraq cut production and scramble for new routes that bypass the strait, Iran is conducting business as usual, according to data from tanker-tracking firm Kpler, throwing a financial lifeline to Tehran as it comes under blistering attack from the U.S. and Israel. ...
Since the war began, around 15 ships have crossed the strait with most being dark-fleet vessels moving Iranian oil to China and India, according to Lloyds List Intelligence. Many are small Chinese tankers that make their presence and origin known to the Revolutionary Guard through loudspeakers and shortwave radio.
“We are a Chinese ship. We are coming through; we are friendly,” the Chinese ships transmit in English to the Revolutionary Guard. The messages can be monitored by other vessels and were heard by The Wall Street Journal.
Kpler said one tanker called the Skywave bound for China took on oil last week from Iran’s Kharg Island, a small enclave in the Gulf’s far northwest where most of Iran’s crude is shipped.
If the bank is the IRGC's financial distribution choke point, Kharg Island is its only remaining storefront. That may make it a very inviting target. However, Newsmax picked up a report in The Guardian that claims that the US and Israel will not attack it over fears of what oil markets may do:
The United States and Israel have so far avoided striking Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal during their ongoing campaign against Tehran, amid concerns that damaging the critical export hub could send global oil prices surging toward $150 per barrel.
Kharg Island, located in the Persian Gulf and responsible for about 90% of Iran's crude exports, is widely viewed by analysts as the country's most sensitive economic target, according to an analysis published Wednesday in The Guardian.
Experts say removing the facility from operation could effectively eliminate Iran's oil exports from global markets.
"We may see the $120 a barrel price we saw on Monday heading to the $150 if Kharg were attacked," Neil Quilliam of the Chatham House think tank said. "It's too vital for global energy markets."
Actually, it isn't. It might be vital for Iran's output, but that's it. We might have refrained from attacking it to keep the Iranians from trying to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, but those bets are now off after Iran's attacks on tankers and attempts to mine the strait. Iran's oil output is not going to global markets; it's already sanctioned and blocked from those markets.
Besides, the US may not need to destroy those facilities. Kharg is only lightly defended, and Iran now has almost no chance of fortifying the island. The US could conduct a ground operation to seize Kharg and stop its operations while leaving the infrastructure intact, a way to leverage Iran's need for income to pressure the regime into capitulation. In the meantime, that would cut off Iran's last remaining source of hard-currency income.
It's clear that CENTCOM has something in mind for escalation:
đź‘€ https://t.co/85S5hy9Rs4 pic.twitter.com/MxWIQqM3Go
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 11, 2026
Presumably, this includes Kharg Island. It might also include Qeshm Island, the largest in the Persian Gulf and a strategic position for the IRGC.
Whatever is coming, it will likely come soon. Trump issued a warning today that the US had refrained from hitting vital commercial infrastructure for Iran, but the escalation from the IRGC will soon put those targets on the list:
Asked what more he would like to see the US accomplish before ending the war in Iran, US President Donald Trump responds, “More of the same.”
He reiterates that the US is holding off on hitting certain targets, ostensibly referring to those pertaining to energy production.
“We’re leaving certain things, which if we take them out — and we can take them out… within an hour — they literally would never be able to build that country back,” Trump says.
Maybe it's time to take out more than the IRGC's wallet.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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