The Cook Political Report changed its rating in the Texas 34th Congressional District race from Leans Democrat to Toss-up. This race pits two sitting members of Congress against each other. Republican Rep. Mayra Flores is the incumbent in this race. Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is running against her because his former district, TX-15, west of TX-34, was re-drawn. This race is considered one of the most competitive races this cycle and one worth watching.

As happens in close races, especially less than one month out from election day, it’s getting ugly. Flores won a special general election in June and is now running to serve a full term. Gonzalez has served in the House since 2017. When Flores won her seat, it was an historic event. Democrats had controlled the district for more than 100 years. She interrupted the status quo in south Texas. The districts in and around the Rio Grande Valley are majority Hispanic and Democrat-controlled. Since the election of Trump, though, Republicans have been making inroads into majority Hispanic districts, slowly but surely. There is no better example of the progress the Republican Party has made than Flores’ victory.

Needless to say, Democrats are not going down without a fight. This race has already been marred with ugliness. The campaign of Vicente Gonzalez purchased advertising on two blogs that ran racist and sexist remarks against Flores. Now a poorly photoshopped picture of Flores is up in an ad from the Gonzalez campaign. The topic of the ad is on school safety and gun control.

Flores cast her first congressional vote opposing the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. This was just weeks after the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas in May. The 40-second ad features a photo originally posted on Mayra Flores’s Instagram account earlier this year. Her eyebrows are edited to give her an aggressive look.

First, Vicente Gonzalez hired a racist blogger to attack me for my heritage. Now Vicente is doing the dirty work himself with this shameless and pathetic photoshopping. https://t.co/5cMNOGQsyU pic.twitter.com/DukV8Wc1ZC

— Mayra Flores (@MayraFlores2022) October 12, 2022

Gonzalez uses the Uvalde mass shooting as fodder for his attack on Flores.

“After the tragic shooting at Uvalde, Mayra Flores’ first vote in Congress was AGAINST a bipartisan school safety bill,” Gonzalez said in a tweet accompanying the video. “We need a representative that works to protect our children and families; not someone who puts them in danger. Remember to vote for Vicente Gonzalez.”

The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act made several changes to federal firearms laws by expanding background check requirements and establishing new criminal offenses while also seeking to fund programs that provide access to mental health services. The bill was passed by Congress and enacted into law in June.

Flores is pro-Second Amendment. Her husband is a Border Patrol agent. It is not surprising that she didn’t vote in favor of more gun control legislation. The vote in the House was mostly along party lines.

The measure includes language to incentivize states to implement red flag laws, which would make it easier for law enforcement to confiscate a firearm and block the purchase of a gun if a person is deemed to be a danger to oneself or others. The bill would also look to tighten background checks on people under 21 looking to purchase a gun. It would further close the so-called boyfriend loophole by tightening background checks on gun purchases of those convicted of domestic violence or certain crimes as minors in addition to providing money for trauma support, school safety, and mental health programs.

Fourteen House Republicans joined all the Democrats in passing the bill: Reps. Steve Chabot (OH), Liz Cheney (WY), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA), Tony Gonzales (TX), Anthony Gonzalez (OH), Chris Jacobs (NY), David Joyce (OH), John Katko (NY), Adam Kinzinger (IL), Peter Meijer (MI), Tom Rice (SC), Maria Salazar (FL), Mike Turner (OH), and Fred Upton (MI).

She says that voters won’t fall for the smears from the Gonzalez campaign.

“The people in the [Rio Grande Valley] are smarter than this and will see right through Vicente’s scare tactics and constant lies,” Flores told Fox News.

Flores was referring to comments from Texas political blogger Jerry McHale who called her “Miss Frijoles” and “Miss Enchiladas,” according to KERA-TV.

He said she was “playing the race card” and was a “cotton pickin’ liar” when she spoke of picking cotton with her parents, who legally emigrated from Mexico to the U.S. when Flores was a child.

An analysis of campaign finance statements showed that Gonzalez’s campaign gave McHale $2,200 since October of 2021.

Flores told the Texas Tribune said she was “disgusted that Vicente Gonzalez has hired a creepy blogger to attack my Mexican heritage and sexually degrade me, but I won’t let this distract me from my work.”

“Vicente Gonzalez is an example of everything that’s wrong with Washington. He doesn’t have a record to stand on,” she said.

She’s right. Gonzalez is a back-bencher without any real legislative achievement to use as a reason for voters to return him to Washington. Flores is speaking to the voters about issues they care about – border security, inflation, the rise in crime, public schools, and other everyday issues. The status quo in south Texas takes the Hispanic vote for granted and that is no longer a wise thing to do. I expect Flores to win this race. Polling is scarce but with Cook Political Report moving it to a toss-up, that’s a good sign that Flores is likely to win in November. We know most polling skews toward Democrats. The last poll recorded at Real Clear Politics for this race is by RMG Research and the dates are 7/23 – 8/1. Gonzalez was up by 4 points then. Things have changed. That’s good news for Flores and Republicans.