Republican Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt is expected to win re-election however some recent polling is showing a tightening in the race. His Democrat opponent, current State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister, is winning last-minute support from suburban women voters unhappy over the Supreme Court ruling in the Dobbs case on abortion.

The race has been downgraded from “Safe R” to “Likely R” by both Real Clear Politics and Cook Political Report. The main reason cited is the flood of attacks against Stitt by outside groups and recent polling. If Hofmeister pulls off a victory, she would be the first Democrat to win a statewide office in Oklahoma since 2006. So-called dark money groups are behind the outside attacks against Stitt. One poll released on Friday shows Hofmeister in the lead.

The exclusive News 9 / News On 6 poll, conducted between Oct. 3 and 6, shows Hofmeister with nearly a 4-point lead one month from Election Day. Among those polled, Hofmeister got 46.8 percent of the vote, while Stitt got 43 percent. Libertarian Natalie Bruno got 2.3 percent, and Independent Ervin Yen got 1.3 percent. Likely Oklahoma voters were polled, and the poll has a plus-minus of 5.65 percent meaning that the Hofmeister-Stitt figures are within the margin of error.

Those polled indicated that they would support former President Trump for re-election if he decided to run in 2024 by a 52.7 to 40.8 percent margin. They also hold a 55.9 percent unfavorable rating of President Joe Biden.

Those are some mixed results, though the poll did target likely voters. They support Trump if he runs in 2024, a majority hold an unfavorable rating of Biden, yet they would vote for a Democrat for governor. It should be noted that Hofmeister is a pro-life Democrat who has a message on abortion that seems to be resonating with suburban women voters, including Republican women.

According to Amber Integrated, 54% of women say they plan on supporting Hofmeister. Back in June before the Dobbs decision, only 32% of women said they would vote for Hofmeister and 43% said they supported Stitt.

“I think the shift we’re seeing is a post-Dobbs suburban Republican woman taking a second look at who they’re going to support,” said Pat McFerron, a Republican consultant based in Oklahoma City.

Hofmeister has described herself as pro-life, though she believes a woman should have the right to choose whether to get an abortion. But women are still flocking to support her as an alternative to Stitt, who signed a near-total ban on abortion in Oklahoma with no exceptions for rape or incest.

Hofmeister describes Stitt’s ban on abortion as extreme and according to the Amber Integrated poll in August, it is unpopular with Republican voters. 62% of Republican voters believe abortion should be legal in cases of rape, incest, and to save the life of the mother. Only 19% think abortion should be entirely banned. This tracks with national polling on abortion. The vast majority of Americans believe in limits to abortion but they do believe in exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother.

Stitt may have a favorability problem. According to the News 9 / News On 6 poll, Stitt’s favorables are underwater while Hofmeister’s are not. The chief operating officer of SoonerPoll, which executed the News 9/News on 6 poll, said voters should pay attention to the favorable and unfavorable numbers. Hofmeister is at 50.7% favorable and 43.3% unfavorable. 5.9% off voters are undecided about Hofmeister.

Both campaigns released statements on recent polling results.

Hofmeister released the following statement in response to the poll: “We launched this campaign one year ago today, and I’m proud to have earned the support of many Oklahoma veterans, parents, teachers and business leaders. Through it all, my reason for running has never changed. I believe Oklahoma belongs to the people, and by working together we can achieve more for our families.”

Gov. Stitt’s campaign manager, Donelle Harder, released the following statement in response to the poll: “With an unprecedented amount of profit from special interest dark money TV ads attacking Gov. Stitt, News 9 has bought a poll with outcomes that court more political TV ad spending, yet we are confident Governor Stitt has the support of Oklahomans by a landslide.”

The message that is resonating with voters presented by outside groups who are spending millions of dollars on ads against Stitt is that Stitt’s administration is corrupt. There was a scandal over an investigation earlier this year that showed the state fumbled on spending millions of federal COVID-19 relief fund dollars meant for education. Federal auditors gave the state’s efforts a poor review. “Oklahomans continue to have an unfavorable opinion of Governor Stitt and stand against his failed leadership and self-dealing,” Hofmeister said. There is also a scandal over a restaurant contract to operate restaurants at state parks that cost taxpayers millions of dollars. Last week outside groups outspent Stitt by a margin of 4-1, according to the Cook Political Report.

The concerns about corruption are resonating with voters. The poll released Wednesday by Amber Integrated and news station KOCO shows 60% of voters think ther is corruption in state government and 26% believe corruption is rampant.

I admit, I didn’t have the Oklahoma gubernatorial election on my radar. Oklahoma has been such a bright red state in recent years that I just took for granted that Stitt would win re-election. Some outlets like fivethirtyeight give Stitt clear odds in easily winning the race. Perhaps recent polling is just a bump in the road. Stitt continues to focus on economic issues which is smart. Those are the issues that continue to be the most important to voters. Democrats want the election to be all about abortion.

Stitt’s internal polling shows he has a comfortable lead. The latest one shows him with a 15-point lead and poised to be “the first candidate for governor since 1982 to carry all 77 counties,” according to “analytics built custom for the campaign.” It’s usually best to take internal polls with a grain of salt.

So, one month out from the November election, this race may be shaping up to be one to keep an eye on. Polling in recent election cycles has been unreliable, to put it kindly.