As Ed described earlier today, the 2nd round of peace talks between Iran and the U.S. has been looking pretty shaky. Iran seemed to have finally come back to the table even as Trump suggested that he would not extend the timetable for Iran to make a deal.
Now there are reports that J.D. Vance, who was leading the peace delegation to Pakistan, is not heading there.
Vice President JD Vance’s diplomatic trip to Islamabad, where he was expected to press Iranian negotiators for a nuclear deal, has been put on hold after Tehran failed to respond to American negotiating positions, according to a U.S. official with direct knowledge of the situation.
Mr. Vance had been scheduled to depart Tuesday morning for the Pakistani capital, where talks were set to resume on Wednesday — the same day the fragile cease-fire between the United States and Iran is set to expire. Without an Iranian response, the official said, the diplomatic process is in effect paused, though the trip has not been canceled.
The trip could be back on at a moment’s notice if Iran’s negotiators respond in a way that President Trump deems acceptable. U.S. officials are also looking for a clear signal that Iran’s negotiators have been fully empowered to reach an agreement.
The difference between the trip being on hold and canceled is significant. It suggests the administration is still holding out hope. However, the fact that Vance isn't already on his way also suggests that no one is entirely optimistic. As suggested above, this may be because Iran ignored our last written offer.
The United States recently transmitted a written proposal to the Iranians intended to establish baseline points of agreement that could frame more detailed negotiations.
But Axios is reporting that it might also be that Iran still hadn't committed to even showing up.
The White House spent all of Monday waiting for a signal from Tehran that it would send its negotiating team to Islamabad.
A source with knowledge of the discussions said the Iranians were stalling amid apparent pressure from the Revolutionary Guards to hold a firmer line: no talks without an end to the U.S. blockade.
Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators spent all day Monday urging the Iranians to come to the table.
Late Monday, signs emerged that Iran had decided to participate, and Vance, Witkoff and Kushner were preparing to leave first thing Tuesday morning, sources said.
But around 7am Tuesday, the situation appeared to shift — the Iranians were still stalling, and the departure was postponed.
Here's what Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said this morning:
The situation as it stands at 1930 PST
— Attaullah Tarar (@TararAttaullah) April 21, 2026
1. Formal response from Iranian side about confirmation of delegation to attend Islamabad Peace Talks is still awaited.
2. Pakistan as the mediator is in constant touch with Iranians and pursuing the path of diplomacy and dialogue.
3.…
3. Ceasefire ends at 4:50 am PST, 22 April. Decision from Iran to attend the talks before the end of two weeks ceasefire is critical.
4. Pakistan has made sincere efforts to convince the Iranian leadership to participate in the second round of talks and these efforts continue.
Obviously, we don't want to send our delegation, including the vice-president, halfway around the world only to find out that the Iranians aren't even willing to show up. Also, if the IRGC is committed to calling Trump's bluff, we probably don't want the VP in that region of the world when bombs start dropping.
What the sources do seem to agree on at this point is that Iran is making these decisions. The door for talks are open and they are choosing door #2 (or door B-2 as Ed put it). No doubt Democrats will be rooting for Iran and blaming President Trump regardless of how we get there, but it's worth noting that Iran seems to be choosing this as their preferred option.
In fact, I think it's likely that the domestic response is a big part of why Iran is holding out. They've seen the same polls everyone else has. They've seen a U.S. Senator rooting for his own country's defeat in the Strait of Hormuz (based on Iranian propaganda). They can't win on the battlefield but they can potentially win here on the home front. I suspect the are counting on the unpopularity of the war to neuter Trump in the midterms. Then they can go back to business as usual, fomenting terrorism in the region, isolated from consequences.
