A Strategic Win for Ukraine in Drone Strikes on Russian Bombers

Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have once again resulted in no substantial changes. Moscow has refused to support a ceasefire despite pressure from President Trump.

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The second round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey once again did not yield any ceasefire results on Monday and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his demand that Russian President Vladimir Putin "must not receive any reward for [his] war."

Despite an apparent memorandum of terms given to Ukraine by the Russian delegation, Moscow once again refused to agree to an unconditional ceasefire defined by a U.S. proposal and already agreed to by Kyiv. 

Following the talks – which appeared to last for less than three hours, though some reporting noted they lasted for less than one hour – the head of the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, said his Russian counterparts not only refused ceasefire terms, but also to a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.

There may be another reason the Russians are in a particularly bad mood today. On Sunday, Ukraine carried out an attack on Russian airbases that had been planned for more than a year. The plan involved sneaking armed drones into Russia by truck and then unleashing the drones near several airbases spread across the country.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said 117 drones were used in the so-called "Spider's Web" operation by the SBU security service, striking "34% of [Russia's] strategic cruise missile carriers"...

SBU sources earlier told BBC News that Sunday's attack involved drones hidden in wooden mobile cabins, with remotely operated roofs on trucks, brought near the airbases and then fired "at the right time"...

"The most interesting thing - and we can already say this publicly - is that the 'office' of our operation on Russian territory was located right next to the FSB of Russia in one of their regions," the Ukrainian president said...

The SBU estimated the damage to Russia's strategic aviation was worth about $7bn (£5bn), promising to unveil more details soon.

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Video of some of the successful strikes is circulating online.

A drone leaving a truck.

There seems to be some agreement this was a big win for Ukraine symbolically and strategically.

“This is a stunning success for Ukraine’s special services,” said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

“If even half the total claim of 41 aircraft damaged/destroyed is confirmed, it will have a significant impact on the capacity of the Russian Long Range Aviation force to keep up its regular large scale cruise missile salvos against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, whilst also maintaining their nuclear deterrence and signaling patrols against NATO and Japan,” he said in an email.

The claim of 41 aircraft damaged has not been confirmed yet and as of today reports are saying 13 planes were destroyed (and an unknown number damaged).

According to an initial statement from the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff, the drones hit 41 aircraft. As of today, those claims have been reassessed, with Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, saying that “at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed.”...

The bombers of Long-Range Aviation that were primarily in the crosshairs of Sunday’s drone strike are among Russia’s most prized strategic aerial assets. Critically, none of these aircraft can be replaced quickly, and most of them cannot be replaced at all, since the production capabilities have long since ceased to exist. The option of bringing long-since-retired aircraft back into service is increasingly unviable. With such aircraft having been stored in the open for decades and scavenged for parts, the extent of work required to make them airworthy again would be huge.

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Whatever the case, there was a significant dollar value to these aircraft and Russia has now lost a portion of their remaining stock of bombers. Russia also responded with its own drone barrage.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities say 472 drones and seven ballistic and cruise missiles were involved in a wave of attacks on Ukraine last night.

This would appear to be one of the largest single Russian drone attacks so far. Ukraine says it "neutralised" 385 aerial targets.

The strike had the usual Russian propagandists on TV last night promising that the people responsible would all be shot, either on their knees facing a wall or with a blindfold. So not much appetite for peace on display from either side of the conflict at the moment.


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