Exactly a year ago today there was a massive fire at the largest shopping mall in Warsaw. The Marywilska 44 shopping center was home to over 1.400 different retailers and was almost completely destroyed by the fire, but fortunately no one was hurt.

🚨 🇵🇱BREAKING: MASSIVE FIRE AT SHOPPING MALL

Emergency services are battling a huge fire at the Marywilska 44 shopping mall in Warsaw, Poland.

Over 80% of the structure is affected.

Residents nearby are advised to stay indoors and keep windows closed due to potential air… pic.twitter.com/L7FbTTAEHm

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 12, 2024

Yesterday, Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that fire was an act of arson carried out by Russian intelligence services. He posted this on X:

We now know for sure that the great fire of the Marywilska shopping centre in Warsaw was caused by arson ordered by the Russian special services. Some of the perpetrators have already been detained, all the others are identified and searched for. We will get you all!

— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) May 11, 2025

We now know for sure that the great fire of the Marywilska shopping centre in Warsaw was caused by arson ordered  by the Russian special services. Some of the perpetrators have already been detained, all the others are identified and searched for. We will get you all!

The BBC has more:

A joint statement by Poland's justice and interior ministers said the actions of those in custody were "organised and directed by a specific person residing in the Russian Federation."

The two ministries added that they were co-operating with Lithuania "where some of the perpetrators also carried out acts of diversion".

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland has detained and convicted several people accused of sabotage on behalf of Russian intelligence services.

Polish officials have said that these attacks have been part of a "hybrid war" waged by Moscow.

Today, Poland closed the Russian consulate in Krakow.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski said Monday that he was ordering the closure of Russia’s consulate in the southern city of Krakow after Polish authorities said Russia was responsible for a fire that destroyed a shopping center in Warsaw last year...

This leaves only one Russian consulate left, in Gdansk.

True to form, Russia is denying everything and claiming they are the victim here.

Speaking with journalists on Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the accusations as being groundless and rooted in anti-Russian sentiment. He also said that Warsaw’s decision to close the consulate would damage bilateral relations between Russia and Poland, which Peskov described as already being in “a deplorable state.”

“Poland is choosing hostility against us,” he said.

Unlike Ukraine, Poland is already a NATO member so there's no doubt that acts of aggression by Russia against Poland could trigger a NATO response. In fact, NATO issued a warning to Russia about attacks on Poland in March.

“When it comes to the defense of Poland and the general defense of NATO territory, if anyone were to miscalculate and think they can get away with an attack on Poland or any other ally, they will be met with the full force of this fierce alliance,” Rutte said at a press conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk during a visit to Warsaw.

“Our reaction will be devastating. This must be clear to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and anyone else who wants to attack us,” Rutte added, praising Poland for spending 4.7 percent of its gross domestic product on defense, the highest level in the alliance.

The beauty of hybrid warfare for Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is that he gets to thumb his nose at NATO and the US while hiding behind tissue thin plausible deniability. This will work because NATO doesn't want to launch a strike based on a disputed case.

This is not the only hybrid warfare Russia has been carrying out against NATO countries. Russia has also been accused of sabotaging several undersea cables. And last November the Wall Street Journal reported that Russia was planning to sabotage US airliners.

Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits...

Poland’s National Prosecutor’s Office said authorities there have arrested four people in connection with the fires and charged them with participating in sabotage or terrorist operations on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency. Poland is working with other countries to find at least two more suspects.

“The group’s goal was also to test the transfer channel for such parcels, which were ultimately to be sent to the United States of America and Canada,” the prosecutor’s office said, without saying who was orchestrating the group’s efforts.

All of this is happening against the backdrop of President Trump trying to bring both Ukraine and Russia to the table for peace talks. After the blowout at the White House in February, Ukraine has seemed somewhat more willing to make a deal but Russia continues to irritate President Trump who warned them to stop the attacks on civilians just a couple weeks ago. Yesterday, Trump expressed some more frustration with Putin.

Earlier this morning President Trump said he was still considering attending that meeting if it happens.

Trump says there is a chance he will fly to Turkey to join the meeting between Ukraine and Russia! pic.twitter.com/YMBE4KxVIf

— Ali (@MerruX) May 12, 2025

So we'll see what happens in a few days, with or without Trump's presence in Turkey, but obviously the President isn't going to blow up possible peace talks by accusing Russia of attacking Poland. So Russia will get away with this, at least for now.