Last week President Trump once again indicated that his plan to place tariffs on Mexico and China were connected to his efforts to control illegal immigration and the flow of drugs over the border.

“Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels,” he said. “A large percentage of these Drugs, much of them in the form of Fentanyl, are made in, and supplied by, China.” He added that the levies were necessary until the flow of drugs “stops, or is seriously limited.”

That all lines up with a fact sheet the White House published on Feb. 1 about the plan to introduce tariffs:

ADDRESSING AN EMERGENCY SITUATION: The extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs, including deadly fentanyl, constitutes a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Until the crisis is alleviated, President Donald J. Trump is implementing a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on imports from China.  Energy resources from Canada will have a lower 10% tariff.

President Trump is taking bold action to hold Mexico, Canada, and China accountable to their promises of halting illegal immigration and stopping poisonous fentanyl and other drugs from flowing into our country.

The orders make clear that the flow of contraband drugs like fentanyl to the United States, through illicit distribution networks, has created a national emergency, including a public health crisis. Chinese officials have failed to take the actions necessary to stem the flow of precursor chemicals to known criminal cartels and shut down money laundering by transnational criminal organizations.

In addition, the Mexican drug trafficking organizations have an intolerable alliance with the government of Mexico. The government of Mexico has afforded safe havens for the cartels to engage in the manufacturing and transportation of dangerous narcotics, which collectively have led to the overdose deaths of hundreds of thousands of American victims. This alliance endangers the national security of the United States, and we must eradicate the influence of these dangerous cartels.

There is also a growing presence of Mexican cartels operating fentanyl and nitazene synthesis labs in Canada.  A recent study recognized Canada’s heightened domestic production of fentanyl, and its growing footprint within international narcotics distribution.

The fact sheet is a summary of Trump's executive order from the same day which you can read here if you're so inclined. That document has a bit more about the justification for tariffs on Canada.

With respect to smuggling of illicit drugs across our northern border, Canada’s Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre recently published a study on the laundering of proceeds of illicit synthetic opioids, which recognized Canada’s heightened domestic production of fentanyl, largely from British Columbia, and its growing footprint within international narcotics distribution.  Despite a North American dialogue on the public health impacts of illicit drugs since 2016, Canadian officials have acknowledged that the problem has only grown.  And while U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) within the Department of Homeland Security seized, comparatively, much less fentanyl from Canada than from Mexico last year, fentanyl is so potent that even a very small parcel of the drug can cause many deaths and destruction to America families.  In fact, the amount of fentanyl that crossed the northern border last year could kill 9.5 million Americans.

That's not nothing but compared to the flow of drugs from Mexico it's a tiny fraction. The BBC published a graph today based on US Customs and Border Protection data. The light blue is fentanyl coming across the southern border. Dark blue is fentanyl coming across the northern border.

The data is available here on the CBP website and best I can tell CBP seized 43 pounds of fentanyl coming into the US from Canada in 2024 compared to 21,100 pounds coming in from Mexico. Another way to put that is that the Canadian flow is 0.2% of the total coming in from both borders. That may be up from what it was previously but it's still a relatively small factor in our overall problem. So why are we putting the same 25% tariffs on Canada that we are on Mexico? 

The immigration picture is similar. We had 2.1 million migrant encounters at the southern border in FY 2024. At the norther border the figure was 199,000. Again it's not nothing but it's less than 9% of the total at both borders. So if we're doling out tariffs based on the scale of the problem and the problem with Mexico is ten times worse, why are Canada and Mexico getting the same level of tariffs?

There are some potential upsides to tariffs including bringing more manufacturing here to the US but in the near term there are also likely to be some pretty major downsides as well. Canada has already responded with tariffs of their own.

Today, the Honourable Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs, and the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, announced that in response to unjustified U.S. tariffs, the Government of Canada is moving forward with 25 per cent tariffs on $155 billion worth of imported goods, beginning immediately with a list of goods worth $30 billion. The scope of the Canadian counter tariffs will be increased to $155 billion if the current U.S. tariffs are maintained. The scope could also be increased if new tariffs are imposed. This was not the outcome Canada hoped for – but we must respond in order to protect our economy and Canadian jobs. 

The first phase of Canada's response includes tariffs on $30 billion in goods imported from the U.S., effective as of 12:01 a.m., March 4, 2025. The list includes products such as orange juice, peanut butter, wine, spirits, beer, coffee, appliances, apparel, footwear, motorcycles, cosmetics, and certain pulp and paper products.

Minister LeBlanc also announced that, should the U.S. continue to apply unjustified tariffs on Canada, the government intends to impose additional countermeasures on $125 billion in imports from the U.S., drawing from a list of goods open for a 21-day comment period, which would bring the scope of countermeasures to a total of $155 billion worth of products. The list includes products such as electric vehicles, fruits and vegetables, beef, pork, dairy, electronics, steel, aluminum, trucks, and buses.

Trudeau called the decision to launch tariffs against Canada "dumb."

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's direct message to Pres. Trump about tariffs: “This is a very dumb thing to do. We two friends fighting is exactly what our opponents around the world want to see.”https://t.co/p3UwDdeRir pic.twitter.com/XZh6vC5m8o

— ABC News (@ABC) March 4, 2025

He's clearly trying to start a personal fight with Trump because this is a battle that help him at home. He's been trying to bring his Liberal Party back from the brink of an electoral wipeout and the tariff threat seems to have done it.

Since Trump's inauguration, Canada's official opposition Conservative Party – once leading the governing Liberals by a wide margin – has seen their popularity in public-opinion polls gradually decline.

An Ipsos poll released last week found that, for the first time since the Liberals won the last federal election in 2021, they’re ahead of the Conservatives by two points, with 38% popularity compared to the Conservatives at 36%. Six weeks earlier, the Conservatives were leading the Liberals by 26 points. A general election is expected to be called as early as this spring by Trudeau's successor, who will be announced on Sunday.

President Trump has already responded threatening even higher tariffs.

🚨 HOLY SMOKES

Trump just responded to Trudeau’s press conference with this: pic.twitter.com/GK9Z51c1sa

— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) March 4, 2025

Will it hurt them more than it hurts us? Almost certainly, but it will still hurt a lot of Americans. People will lose jobs if this continues. Prices on many goods will go up.  

You can make the argument that those are costs worth paying because American lives are at stake. We lost about 100,000 people to overdoses last year, mostly from fentanyl. But again, the Canadian contribution to that problem is marginal. Maybe it makes sense to put that kind of extreme pressure on Mexico and China to force them to cut off the flow of drugs, but the argument that Canada deserves the same treatment looks pretty thin. 

No doubt President Trump will have more to say about this tonight.