In order to appreciate where we are right now with the Gaza ceasefire, you have to compare it to what was supposed to happen. The idea was to create a 6-week ceasefire, known as phase one, during which Hamas would hand over Israeli hostages, often 3-4 at a time, and Israel would respond to by freeing Palestinian prisoners, often hundreds at a time. And while this temporary truce was in place Israel and Hamas would discuss plans for phase two in which a) all the remaining hostages would be released and b) the war would finally end with some plan for the future of Gaza having been reached.

So here we are just days away from the deadline that will mark the end of phase one and things are not going as planned. In Israel, people have rejoiced every time hostages are released. The whole thing is televised in real time, but Hamas has turned the releases into a sad spectacle where the hostages are paraded through a small army of Hamas fighters and forced to sign documents and wave to the cameras as if they are cheerfully saying goodbye to their captors.

All of these people were kidnapped, many have lost family members to Hamas violence and they've been held captive for more than a year, often starved and forced to work like servants in the households where they stayed. None of them feel like waving fond goodbyes to their captors but Hamas is determined to put on a show.

And then you had the handover of Shiri Bibas and her two children last Thursday. This family in particular has really impacted a lot of Israelis because the children were so young (4 years and 9 months) and because video of them being abducted showed the tremendous fear on the face of their mother.

Do not ever forget that Shiri, Kfir and Ariel Bibas well taken alive by these Gazan savages. Not all were Hamas. Many were plain clothed civilians. pic.twitter.com/McYGstn1QD

— Arsen Ostrovsky 🎗️ (@Ostrov_A) February 20, 2025

Hamas had claimed the entire family was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Gaza though some continued to hope that was a lie. In the end the handover involved black coffins and Hamas once again turned it into a spectacle, placing the bodies under a banner blaming Netanyahu for their deaths.

The caskets of Oded Lifshitz, Shiri Bibas, Ariel Bibas (5), and Kfir Bibas (1) have been paraded across a stage with Hamas terrorists to cheering Gazan “civilians” surrounded by terrorist propaganda.

Hamas is openly and publicly celebrating that they kidnapped and murdered an… pic.twitter.com/OVL4UGnZxD

— Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر (@emilykschrader) February 20, 2025

But after Israel got the coffins they discovered that Shiri Bibas, the mother of the two young kids, was not among the dead. Hamas had substituted the body of a Palestinian woman instead. Hamas would eventually turn over the body of Shiri later that night, but the final outrage was the worst. Forensic examination of the bodies concluded the two children had not died in an airstrike, they were murdered.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Daniel Hagari said "forensic findings", which have not been seen by the BBC, suggested the boys had been killed with "bare hands".

He said evidence had been shared with Israel's "partners around the world so they can verify it".

Another hostage release took place on Saturday and Hamas once again paraded the captives before a group of fighters. In response, Israel delayed the release of 600 prisoners demanding and end to the humiliation of Israeli hostages.

Israel says the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners is delayed "until the release of the next hostages has been assured, and without the humiliating ceremonies" at handovers of Israeli captives in Gaza.

The statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office came early Sunday local time as military vehicles that normally move in advance of the buses carrying prisoners left the open gates of Ofer prison, only to turn around and go back in.

The release of 620 Palestinian prisoners had been delayed for several hours and was meant to occur just after six Israeli hostages were released on Saturday. It was meant to be the largest one-day prisoner release in the Gaza ceasefire's first phase.

While all of this is happening, with Israelis getting increasingly angry about the situation, no progress has been made discussing phase two of the ceasefire. The principals haven't even sat down face to face a single time. So here we are just days from the official end of phase one and it's not clear what will happen next. In fact, it's not clear if the next release of hostages will take place on Thursday.

So far, 29 Israeli hostages - plus five Thais - have been released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees, with the bodies of four more hostages, initially due to be handed over on Thursday, still to come.

There is now a standoff over the release of more than 600 Palestinians, which Israel has delayed, accusing Hamas of breaching the agreement by making a public show of the handover of Israeli hostages in Gaza.

Hamas official Basem Naim said progress could not be made while the prisoners were still being held but that Hamas was committed to a permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Even if the anger of the treatment of hostages alive and dead were to subside, the fact remains that Israel and Hamas want very different things for the future of Gaza. Israel wants a Gaza where Hamas has been disarmed and no longer runs anything. Hamas has refused to surrender, has no plans to disarm and hopes to start planning the next attack as soon as Israeli forces leave.

Weak and isolated, Hamas has avoided explicit calls for a resumption in hostilities, even if the group has made war more likely by refusing to surrender.

By contrast, Mr. Netanyahu directly stated on Sunday that Israel was ready to resume fighting if Hamas would not disarm itself voluntarily. In a speech to soldiers, Mr. Netanyahu said he was only open to negotiations on the terms of Hamas’s surrender.

Many Israelis want the prime minister to agree to an extended truce in order to free the remaining hostages, even if it comes at the expense of keeping Hamas in power. But Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition allies see a defeat of Hamas as a bigger national priority and are pressing him to restart the conflict.

The Israeli military has already made extensive preparations for a new and intense campaign in Gaza, according to three defense officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak more freely.

So what will happen next? Most likely the US will intervene and try to extend the ceasefire to allow for a few more exchanges of hostages/prisoners. There is probably a limit on this process however as there are only about 60 hostages left. Hamas won't be willing to release them all because then they would have no leverage left to prevent Israel from resuming the war. At this point it's hard to see how the ceasefire can last long term unless Islamic states demand an end to Hamas.