Leaks coming from inside the Liberal Party reveal that Trudeau is definitely on his way out, it's just a matter of when and how. Concerned about their own futures, a significant number of Liberal MPs would like to see him go as soon as possible.

“[A majority of the] caucus has already decided: they don’t care what the consequences are, he should go, they don’t want him,” one Liberal source told The Hill Times. “Now, most of them want him gone immediately, they want to turn the dial. That’s another issue: does he go or does he stay until a new leader is chosen? The room for compromise is gone, the longer he takes, the harder it is for him to stay even a day extra.”

The sense of looming doom for Trudeau began when his Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned two weeks ago. Since then, she has been calling individual Liberal MPs which many see as her attempt to campaign for the job as Trudeau's eventual replacement.

Since her resignation, several Liberal MPs told The Hill Times that Freeland has been making calls to all caucus members. In these calls, the former finance minister is not saying anything about seeking the party’s top job but MPs perceive those calls as her outreach to seek their support in the coming leadership election.

“Chrystia is systematically calling every single members of the caucus,” said one Liberal MP, who spoke to The Hill Times on a not-for-attribution basis, to candidly discuss behind the scenes developments. “Good political play by her and a terrible bungle by the prime minister. True to her credit, she was not doing a lot of talking, she wanted me to say that she should run for the leadership.”

Trudeau is said to be considering his options. Meanwhile, at least 50 Liberal Party MPs have publicly called on him to resign including MP George Chahal who made his views known last Friday in a blunt letter.

“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau no longer has the support of caucus, and to maintain some dignity he should immediately tender his resignation,” wrote Chahal (Calgary-Skyview, Alta.) in a letter sent out this morning to all Liberal MPs...

“Any rational individual in a position of leadership would resign. Any group of individuals providing advice based on data and logic would reach the same conclusion,” wrote Chahal. “Unfortunately, a small cabal have decided to pursue a reckless strategy of mutual assured political destruction. It is clear the Liberal Party of Canada is not their priority.”

In addition to letters like that one, Liberal MPs are also discussing Trudeau's future over email. Some of those emails have also been leaked to the media.

“I continue to believe that early in the New Year a plan moving forward will be announced including his [Trudeau’s] resignation and we will be consumed with new challenges,” wrote Judy Sgro (Humber River-Black Creek, Ont.), in an email to her caucus colleagues on Saturday, Dec. 28, obtained by The Hill Times.

“Happy new year.”

In a second email to Liberal MPs, she wrote:  “There’s no option but resignation is only way forward. He knows it just as we do.”

With the walls closing in around him, Trudeau's only remaining choices involve how he wants to leave office. One option would be to resign immediately so the party could promote an alternative who would then have a leg up in a coming election. However, that option probably relies on the conservatives not being able to bring up a vote of no confidence until sometime in February or March, giving the Liberals a few months to get themselves organized. But the conservatives aren't planning to wait that long. They have a plan to get the ball rolling even before Parliament returns, making it possible to hold a vote before the end of January.

Public Accounts will meet starting January 7 to address a motion of non-confidence in the Government.

The committee’s non-confidence report will be tabled in Parliament on Jan. 27 and could be voted on by Jan. 30.

The Government no longer commands the confidence of Parliament. pic.twitter.com/KPK4p9l9AQ

— John Williamson (@JohnWilliamson_) December 27, 2024

The question is whether or not Jagmeet Singh and the NDP will go along with that. Singh recently promised to call for a vote of no confidence when Parliament returns, however he probably won't get a chance to do that himself until March. In theory, there's no reason he should wait until then if an earlier opportunity presents itself, but in reality he runs a left-wing party that will do whatever it can to make things more difficult on the conservatives. In other words, he and his party may vote to support Trudeau one more time in January just to throw a wrench in the gears of the conservatives' plan.

The other option is that Trudeau could throw his own wrench into that plan by proroguing Parliament. This would shut down Parliament and prevent its return until sometime in late February or March. That would give the Liberals a few months to organize some kind of abbreviated leadership race. Their goal would be to come up with a Trudeau replacement who unites the party enough to save them from electoral doom. It's really not so different from what Democrats did this year, replacing Joe Biden with Kamala Harris when it became clear he was not competent to run. Of course we all know how that worked out for Democrats.

Trudeau can drag out his own decision as long as he wants, but with the mounting pressure on him it seems likely he'll announce something early in the new year.