The official word so far is that no one really saw this coming, not Russia and not even the United States. Ukraine's decision to invade Russia is looking like a high-risk gamble but so far it appears to be paying off.
After months of losing ground to Russia in brutal, grinding battles in Ukraine, Kyiv shifted tactics with a surprise attack into Russian territory this week that caught Moscow off guard and opened a new front in the 30-month war.
Ukrainian forces have punched through Russian border defenses and seized several settlements in fighting that was still raging on Thursday, according to Russian officials, a Ukrainian soldier and analysts. The attack triggered a state of emergency in one region in the west of Russia. Ukrainian armored columns were filmed moving along roads as far as six miles inside Russia...
The goal was to shift the fighting — and Russian soldiers and weaponry — onto Russian territory and ease the pressure of Moscow’s offensive in eastern Ukraine, a senior Ukrainian official said. He asked not to be cited by name, as Ukraine has not acknowledged its soldiers are fighting in Russia...
“They were not expecting us, and they fled wherever they could,” said a Ukrainian soldier who fought in the assault and who asked to be identified by only his first name, Oleksandr, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. His unit took prisoners and captured a tank, he said in a telephone interview.
Another possible goal here is to give the Ukrainians something to negotiate with. As it stands now, Russia has seized large areas of Ukrainian territory and any negotiation would probably begin with Putin's demand that those areas remain permanently under Russian control. However, if Ukraine managed to seize some towns inside Russia they would then have something to offer in a swap deal.
The Kursk offensive has put new pressure on Putin as Russian civilians have had to be evacuated under the same type of bombardment Ukrainians have endured for more than two years...
“This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia — this is what it’s all about,” the Zelensky adviser said.
Russia's top military commander claimed yesterday that Russian forces had halted the invasion but locals say that's not true.
Kursk residents, who live in the Sudzhansky District, recorded a video address to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday asking for his help, saying he has been misinformed about the situation on the ground and the Russian Defense Ministry’s statements about things being under control are untrue.
The address was published on a local Telegram channel that is dedicated to covering the latest news out of the town of Sudzha in Kursk region, which has been under Ukrainian attack for several days.
“These lies enable the local residents to die. The Chief of the General staff recently told you that the situation is under control, but today huge furious battles are underway in the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts,” one of the residents said.
“Sudzha was attacked, turned into ruins in a matter of hours. Local administration wasn’t working,” another resident said.
Russian military bloggers also say the attack is worse than is being admitted thus far.
a prominent Russian military blogger who writes under the name of Rybar said Thursday that Ukrainian forces had Sudzha, the main town in the area, “practically under full control.” Videos from Sudzha, verified by The New York Times, show cars trying to leave amid sounds of gunshots and roads littered with burned vehicles and what appeared to be mines.
It remains to be seen how long this attack can continue but already Ukraine is said to have seized more than 100 kilometers of territory inside Russia, making it the biggest advance in more than a year. It has also produced video which appears to show Russian soldiers surrendering to Ukrainian forces.
The latest attack is said to have taken place 27 km from the Ukraine border.
A large fire 🔥 is occurring in Rylsk in the Kursk Region, 27km from Ukraine 🇺🇦
— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) August 8, 2024
Reportedly, a Russian column was destroyed at night
Rylsk would be a key target for Ukraine to cut off most Russian logistics going to the border with Ukraine’s Sumy region. It’s within HIMARS range pic.twitter.com/UqXGSeg4q2
Again, it may be days before we know whether this gamble paid off but as of now Ukraine has certainly surprised the Russians.
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