Hamas appears to be rejecting the peace deal put forward by President Biden on behalf of Israel last week. It's leaders are indicating today that they are not interested. 

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters on Thursday that while the group welcomed what he called “Biden’s ideas,” a US draft resolution at the UN Security Council based on the latest proposal was related to an Israeli ceasefire offer Hamas had seen and had rejected.

“The (US) document… has no mention of ending the aggression or the withdrawal,” he said.

“The Israeli documents speak of open-ended negotiation with no deadline, and it speaks of a stage during which the occupation regains its hostages and resumes the war. We had told the mediators that such a paper wasn’t acceptable to us,” said Abu Zuhri.

The Wall Street Journal has a quote from Yahya Sinwar himself.

“Hamas will not surrender its guns or sign a proposal that asks for that,” Arab mediators said Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar told them in a brief message they received Thursday, as two top U.S. officials, including Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns, hold talks in the region aimed at jump-starting long-stalled negotiations.

That decision makes a lot more sense in light of this Reuters story published today about the diminished forces Hamas has left.

The enclave's ruling group has been reduced to between 9,000 and 12,000 fighters, according to three senior U.S. officials familiar with battlefield developments, down from American estimates, opens new tab of 20,000-25,000 before the conflict. By contrast, Israel says it has lost almost 300 troops in the Gaza campaign.

So Hamas has lost, at a minimum, 8,000 fighters and at the most as many as 16,000 while Israel has lost 300 troops. As a result, Hamas has been force to change tactics. It doesn't even attempt a straight fight with the IDF anymore.

"In earlier months, Hamas fighters would intercept, engage and fire at Israeli troops as soon as they pushed into their territory," Ibrahim told Reuters by phone. "But now, there is a notable shift in their mode of operations, they wait for them to deploy and then they start their ambushes and attacks."

Most of Hamas' remaining 9,000 to 12,000 fighters are located in Rafah, their hideout of last resort and also the city closest to tunnels that cross the border with Egypt. Those tunnels have been used to resupply their forces but Israel recently seized the entire border and located dozens of tunnels which are no longer available to Hamas. But it could take months to further degrade those Hamas fighters now that they are resorting to ambush attacks. This is why Israel believes the war will continue through the end of this year.

Even then, Israel can't kill every remaining Hamas fighter but it can degrade the group to the point that they are no longer much of a threat. And once it does that, it can monitor Gaza closely and return at any sign that Hamas is rebuilding. 

David Schenker, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, dismissed any suggestion of a clean IDF pullout from the Palestinian territory.

"Israel says it's going to maintain security control which means that it's going to constantly fly drones over Gaza and they're not going to be limited if they see Hamas re-emerging, they're going to go back," said Schenker, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute U.S.-based think-tank.

That's what Hamas wants to avoid. They would be happy to see the invasion of Gaza end but only if Israel is not allowed to return at the first sign they are rebuilding their forces for the next attack on Israel. For its part, Israel can't accept any deal which gives Sinwar and his remaining forces a clean slate and international protection from future attacks. There can't be a permanent ceasefire so long as Hamas remains intent on killing Israeli civilians.