Dennis Ross: Now is Not the Time for a Ceasefire

AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov

Dennis Ross is a diplomat who has worked for George H. W. Bush and who served as Middle East envoy for Bill Clinton. He also later worked for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Today he wrote an opinion piece for the NY Times in which he argues that now is not the time for a ceasefire with Hamas.

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In the past, I might have favored a cease-fire with Hamas during a conflict with Israel. But today it is clear to me that peace is not going to be possible now or in the future as long as Hamas remains intact and in control of Gaza. Hamas’s power and ability to threaten Israel — and subject Gazan civilians to ever more rounds of violence — must end…

If Hamas persists as a military force and is still running Gaza after this war is over, it will attack Israel again. And whether or not Hezbollah opens a true second front from Lebanon during this conflict, it, too, will attack Israel in the future. The aim of these groups, both of which are backed by Iran, is to make Israel unlivable and drive Israelis to leave: While Iran has denied involvement in the Hamas attack, Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has long talked about Israel not surviving for another 25 years, and his strategy has been to use these militant proxies to achieve that goal.

The situation now is that Israel is starting to believe it too. If Hamas is not destroyed the events of Oct. 7 will be repeated. Ross writes that it’s not just Israelis who believe that now is the time to put an end to Hamas.

Over the past two weeks, when I talked to Arab officials throughout the region whom I have long known, every single one told me that Hamas must be destroyed in Gaza. They made clear that if Hamas is perceived as winning, it will validate the group’s ideology of rejection, give leverage and momentum to Iran and its collaborators and put their own governments on the defensive.

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He adds that none of these people saying this in private will say the same in public and we’ve already seen why. When an explosion killed a bunch of people at Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza, there were angry protests around the Middle East. It turns out that almost everything Hamas said about that explosion was false but that news won’t reach the people who joined those protests. To them, Palestinians are always the victims and Israel is always responsible.

The only solution to this problem is to defeat Hamas. A ceasefire now would effectively be a win for Hamas who are still hiding out in their tunnels waiting to emerge once again.

…ending the war now would mean Hamas would win. At present, its military infrastructure still exists, its leadership remains largely intact, and its political control of Gaza is unchallenged. As Hamas did after conflicts with Israel in 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2021, the group will almost certainly rearm and restore. It will be able to add to its system of tunnels running under the enclave. The strip will remain impoverished, and the next round of war will be inevitable, holding both Gazan civilians and much of the rest of the Middle East hostage to Hamas’s aims.

The remainder of the piece is about what comes next, i.e. after an Israeli ground invasion. He argues that Israel will have to remain long enough to maintain order and then other neighbors need to be persuaded to help set up a non-Hamas government and a police force which can actually try to bring some relief and order to the people there. But it needs to be clear that Israel is not planning to remain there permanently.

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Israel’s political leaders need to clearly and publicly emphasize they will leave Gaza and lift the siege after Hamas has been militarily defeated and largely disarmed. They must communicate that they understand a political resolution is needed with the Palestinians more generally.

This is already a losing situation for Israel and for the civilians in Gaza. It needs to be made a losing situation for Hamas or the whole cycle will just repeat again in a few years.

Surprisingly, some of the top comments support Ross’ conclusions. Here’s the #1 comment.

There will be peace in the Middle East when one side wins. Germany and Japan surrendered and there has been 75 years of peace. The world seems to believe it is incumbent upon Israel to cease hostilities for the sake of the Gazan people. Another option would be for Hamas to surrender and release the hostages. There is no reason the onus should be on Israel to end this. They were the one who was attacked. I agree with the author. Hamas must be defeated.

And another:

This is the best assessment of the situation I have seen in the Times. Any future in which Hamas exists with a military capacity is unacceptable.

One more:

Hamas controls Gaza, which receives millions and millions of dollars in aid each year. There is plenty of concrete and steel in Gaza as anyone can plainly see. Which means Hamas has the money and supplies to build safe shelters for their civilians, but they do not. Why?

Everyone knows the answer to the question.

Hamas uses innocent Palestinians as human shields to protect their terrorist assets and WANTS dead Palestinians, especially children, to use as international pressure against Israel, which it wants to destroy and whose citizens it wants to butcher.

Again, everyone knows this.

There is no other explanation for the lack of civilian safe havens and rocket launchers placed near hospitals, schools, and mosques. Hamas, itself, will tell you explicitly and through its actions of its genocidal intent.

Yet many in the left shake their fists at Israel and protest its “genocide,” demonstrating the tremendous moral decay and cowardice that plagues the left every bit as much as it plague the right.

It is shameful bc Israel is the only party to the conflict—which is with Hamas—interested in protecting innocent Israeli AND Palestinian lives.

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Pretty surprising to see this getting upvoted by NY Times readers.

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