Al Jazeera, the news network owned by Qatar, has released the results of its own investigation into the Gaza hospital explosion. They conclude that the claim the explosion was caused by a Palestinian rocket doesn’t add up.

Al Jazeera’s Sanad Agency has investigated the Israeli claim that the bombing of Gaza’s al-Ahli Arab Hospital was the result of a rocket misfire from Palestinian Islamic Jihad and not a result of Israel’s relentless bombing of the Gaza Strip since October 7.

Sanad’s investigation analysed time-coded footage from several sources, including a live broadcast by an Al Jazeera journalist at the time.

Here’s the full clip in English. See if you can identify the problem with the reasoning here.

An Al Jazeera digital investigation found no grounds for the Israeli army's claim that the strike on the al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza was caused by a failed rocket launch. pic.twitter.com/DQsrBXfwmL

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 19, 2023

So we know there was a rocket launched from Gaza and at 18:59:50 it seems to be intercepted by Iron Dome. And then seven seconds after that an explosion in the hospital parking lot which appears to be roughly below the rocket.

So I guess the argument here is that if the rocket was completely destroyed then there was nothing left to impact the hospital. But it seems possible the rocket was broken up and pieces of it then fell to the ground for several seconds before one piece landed in the hospital parking lot.

Of course we don’t know what kind of rocket was flying over the area but some of the rockets fired from Gaza weigh 2,000 pounds and contain a high explosive payload. Even after breaking up, that’s a lot of material falling from the sky.

Especially when footage from the site of the explosion is entirely incosistent with an airstrike and entirely consistent with a small munition and a hell of a lot of fuel accelerant.

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 19, 2023

I think the decisive factor here is that the site of the impact just doesn’t show the level of damage that would be expected from an Israeli missile. There is only a small crater and most of the damage seems to have been limited to a small area. That’s not my opinion, that’s according to actual experts.

Whatever hit the hospital in #Gaza it wasn’t an airstrike. Even the smallest JDAM leaves a 3m crater. Widespread surface damage and total lack of cratering inconsistent with an airstrike. https://t.co/US4bJC0nY3

— Marc Garlasco (@marcgarlasco) October 18, 2023

There’s too much at stake for this debate to really end here. Hamas finally had an issue which seemed to motivate their supporters around the world, threatening to bring Hezbollah and Iran into the conflict on their side. The media also stuck its neck out reporting claims that came from Hamas-controlled sources and they too would probably love to claw back some of their credibility. I don’t think the Al Jazeera clip is going to do that but there are certainly lots of people sharing it on X today as if it’s definitive proof.

Update: The NY Times has a story about this. Their freelancer saw the same small crater which isn’t consistent with an Israeli missile strike. Also, Israel is denying an Iron Dome intercept was involved here.

Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the chief spokesman for the Israeli military, said the Palestinian group fired 10 rockets at 6:59 p.m. on the night of the explosion, and that one of them fell to earth prematurely, hitting a parking lot outside the hospital.

He denied that Israel had fired any ordnance in the area of the hospital at that time.

He cited a photo of the parking lot that was posted on social media on Wednesday morning that he said did not show the kind of crater that would have been caused by an Israeli missile. The photo shows the effects of a fire — burned-out cars and scorched ground — that he said was caused by rocket fuel…

A freelance videographer working for The Times who visited the scene the day after the explosion filmed footage showing a small impact crater. Other photos and video footage show the same, including the Israeli military’s aerial image. It is as yet unclear whether the crater is related to the explosion and if any conclusions can be drawn from it.

Admiral Hagari dismissed suggestions that the strike was caused by an errant Israeli air defense interceptor; he said Israel does not fire air defense missiles into Gazan airspace.

Two points. First, I don’t see how the small crater could not be related to the damage as you can see that it’s directly between two grassy areas where most of the victims were killed and, as I pointed out, the fence and concrete on both sides has been blasted away from this crater.

Second point, it definitely looks to me like there was a missile intercept of the rocket. You can see a missile accelerate and then an explosion in the air. I don’t see how that’s deniable at this point.