There have been several reports this week that the influx of new weapons to Ukraine is accelerating. For instance, Abrams tanks which were not expected to be delivered until possibly next year are now going to be arriving in a matter of months.

The original plan was to send Ukraine 31 of the newer M1A2 Abrams, which could have taken a year or two to build and ship. But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has approved new plans to send the older M1A1 version from Army stocks, which will be easier for Ukrainian forces to learn to use and maintain as they fight Russia’s invasion.

“DoD, in close coordination with Ukraine, made the decision to buy the M1A1 variant which will enable us to significantly expedite delivery timelines, and deliver this important capability to Ukraine by the fall of this year,” said the Pentagon’s press secretary, Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder.

So Ukraine will get the slightly older tanks but those are still more than a match for some of the dinosaurs Russia has been sending into battle. Forbes published a story yesterday about the dire situation Russia is in with its own supply of tanks.

The Russian army and its separatist and mercenary allies widened their war on Ukraine in February 2022 with more than a thousand front-line tanks—most of them reasonably modern T-80Us and BVs, T-72B3s and T-90Ms…

After 13 months of hard fighting, the Ukrainian military has destroyed or captured nearly 1,900 Russian and separatist tanks.

There is only one factory in Russia which makes new tanks and it has been short on the digital equipment it needs to build new ones. So instead, Russia is refurbishing older tanks including T-62s that were built in the 1960s and sending those to the front with nothing new in them except radios and maybe some additional armor. Russia probably has a couple thousand tanks left in storage but most of them are the older models from the 60s and 70s. There was even one report this week that Russia is now pulling out of mothballs some T-54 tanks built in the 1940s.

The Conflict Intelligence Team, a group that monitors Russia’s military, shared images of the antique tanks on a train.

It said that the images show T-54 tanks, which the Soviet Union started producing in 1947, moving west from the far east of Russia.

It’s not clear if these ancient tanks are headed for the front but why else would you put them on a train headed west? In any case, the Abrams tanks are a few months away but Norway delivered 8 Leopard tanks to Ukraine this week.

BREAKING:

Norway has just transferred 8 Leopard 2A4 tanks, 4 armored repair and evacuation vehicles, and one mobile counter-battery radar to Ukraine.

🇳🇴🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/AEalLkGrmF

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 20, 2023

And there are more tanks coming from Sweden.

Swedish Parliament approves the proposal of the country's govt. to provide Ukraine with artillery systems and tanks

Sweden will provide Ukraine with 8 ultramodern artillery systems Archer & 10 main battle tanks Leopard 2.https://t.co/uvS7NlgbCk

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 23, 2023

From Spain:

🇪🇸 At the end of next week, Spain will send six Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine, – the Ministry of Defense of Spain. pic.twitter.com/mzjlGiwC5q

— Malinda 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇵🇱🇨🇦🇮🇹🇦🇺🇬🇧🇬🇪🇩🇪🇸🇪 (@TreasChest) March 23, 2023

And from Poland:

VIDEO of a trainload of Leopard 2 tanks allegedly passing through Poland on their way to Ukraine. #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukrainewar #Putinswar #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/zsMvEKW5dp

— raging545 (@raging545) March 23, 2023

When it comes to air combat, Ukraine is also receiving some additional help from both Poland and Slovakia:

Poland is expected to deliver four MiG-29s and Slovakia has pledged 13 from its own inventory. This number is expected to include some that are no longer operational and thus would be cannibalized for spare parts, rather than donated in flying order.

Alone, these fighters will be useful to Ukraine’s Air Force, which currently has more pilots than working aircraft after a year of heavy losses.

The story goes on to say that this relatively small number of planes (some of which aren’t flight worthy) won’t be enough to shift the outcome but it could put additional pressure on the US and other countries to put forward their own donations of jets.

Meanwhile, Ukraine remains upbeat about the battle for Bakhmut where Russian mercenaries have been trying desperately to take the city for months. According to Ukraine, it seems the Wagner group is running out of steam.

“In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues to conduct offensive actions, but its offensive potential is decreasing,” it added.

According to the Ukrainian military, Russian forces are continuing to expend large numbers of men trying to re-take the city.

“The enemy keeps trying to take the city, losing a significant amount of manpower, weapons and military equipment,” it said on Wednesday. “Our defenders have been repelling numerous enemy attacks around the clock in the areas of Bakhmut, Bohdanivka and Predtechyne.”

That is leading to some talk of a Ukrainian counter-offensive to come.

“[Russians] are losing significant forces [in Bakhmut] and are running out of energy,” said Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine’s land forces.
“Very soon, we will take advantage of this opportunity, as we did in the past near Kyin Kharkiv, Balakliya and Kupyansk,” he said, referring to instances where Russian troops have previously retreated in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensives.

In fact the head of the Wagner group posted a video of himself explaining that he expects a Ukrainian counteroffensive in three specific areas.

Prigozhin claims that he knows about the Ukrainian plan to deal 3 blows and liberate the territory to the 1991 borders. He states that Ukraine concentrated 200,000 of reserves in the Donbas, with 80k of them being near Bakhmut. Plans include invading the Belgorod region to be… pic.twitter.com/tylrPk6yKl

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 23, 2023

Igor Girkin, a Russian nationalist who has been a vocal critic of the conduct of the war, suggested the battle of Bakhmut was the battle of Stalingrad only in reverse. This time it’s the Russians who are being bled of soldiers and equipment while the enemy prepares a major offensive.

Girkin, in his typical manner, compares the battle of Bakhmut with the battle of Stalingrad, i.e. hopes by the Russians to "somehow" win over the city, meanwhile the defenders are preparing reserves for a powerful push. Girkin believes the Russian command is intending to surpass… pic.twitter.com/CtWeLC6hLG

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 20, 2023

Girkin has been a bit of a doomer on the Russian conduct of the war (despite being on their side) but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong. Now that spring is here we may see some dramatic changes happening soon.