The battle for Bakhmut has been going on for more than six months now. It was once a town of about 70,000 people and now there’s not much left. Many of the homes and buildings have been destroyed by Russian artillery and as few as 4,500 citizens are left living there. The territory itself probably isn’t worth fighting for.

But for whatever reason, Bakhmut has become a kind of symbolic battle to both sides. The mercenary Wagner group wants a win so it can claim a measure of progress that Russia’s actual army hasn’t been achieving anywhere else. And the Ukrainians continue to hold on, at least partly, because they have been very successful at grinding down Russian troops in the area. Today the Washington Post has a story about the Russian tactics which amount to sending waves of former prisoners to their deaths.

The men enlisted to fight for Russia’s Wagner mercenary force — composed of many convicted criminals recruited behind bars and sent to fight in Ukraine in exchange for their freedom — are “dirtier and they don’t have the same military uniforms or flak jackets like regular Russian soldiers,” said Dmytro Vatagin, 48, a Ukrainian soldier stationed in the neighboring village of Ivanivske with the volunteer 24th Battalion.

The mercenary fighters typically move on Ukrainian positions early in the morning, he said, attempting attacks in irregular and unpredictable patterns, seemingly without any clear strategy, which makes them seem “unprepared” for battle.

It is only later in the day that better-trained Russian forces often enter the fray, seeking to make a real advance.

“Wagner and the mobilized are being just thrown like meat” toward the front line, Vatagin said.

But the constant fighting means both sides are increasingly running out of men and ammunition. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group’s boss was once again complaining about the lack of ammunition this weekend.

In a social media post on Sunday, Mr Prigozhin said documents had been signed on 22 February, with ammunition expected to be sent to Bakhmut the next day.

But most had not been shipped, he said, before suggesting it could be deliberate.

And in a further sign of the rift, on Monday Mr Prigozhin said his representative was unable to access the headquarters of Russia’s military command. It is unclear where the headquarters is located…

Separately, in a video uploaded on Saturday – but seemingly filmed in February – Mr Prigozhin said his men feared that they were being “set up” as scapegoats in case Russia lost its war in Ukraine.

There really does seem to be some kind of internal rivalry taking place between the Russian army and the Wagner Group. So it’s possible the army really is holding back on ammo to keep the Wagner Group from claiming a victory that the army itself hasn’t been able to claim in a while. Alternatively, Prigozhin could be giving himself an excuse because he believes he’s ultimately going to lose this battle. The NY Times is reporting today that despite being surrounded on three sides, Ukraine is continuing to fight and push Russian lines back.

After months of epic struggle, the fight over the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut had seemed in recent days to be reaching a climax, with Russian forces close to encircling the city and some Ukrainian units pulling out.

Then, early Saturday, Ukrainian assault brigades went on the attack. Over the weekend, hundreds of troops joined the counteroffensive, mounting assaults from the ground and pounding Russian positions with artillery from the surrounding hills.

Ukrainian commanders acknowledged that their forces in Bakhmut still faced the risk of encirclement, but the fighting over the weekend showed that a military that has surprised the world with its doggedness was not yet ready to give up on Bakhmut…

“The enemy would send 20 guys into attack six to seven times a day,” said Oleksandr, a company commander who took part in the assault. He did not give his surname in accordance with military protocol. “Imagine: Twenty guys come, we kill them. In five minutes, 20 more guys come, we kill them. In an hour, 20 more. They don’t care about men.”

Meanwhile the Ukrainians are also running low on ammo and there are now reports that some of the fighting in Bakhmut has come down to fistfights.

Fighting is so intense that Vatagin said he and his team have at times searched houses for Russian forces, then engaged in hand-to-hand combat with them, ultimately capturing some combatants as prisoners of war. “Fistfights have been happening,” he said. “Everyone has their own fighting story.”

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said today that it won’t really matter if the Russians take Bakhmut. That’s probably true but also sounds like the kind of argument you make before a loss of territory.

So at the moment both sides are tired, low on ammo and saying things that could be framed as cover for a coming loss. It’s almost as if neither side really has much confidence. Bakhmut is a battle of attrition and while the Russians may take the territory this week, they’ll have done so at a much higher cost in terms of manpower. This CNN clip offers a pretty good explanation of the situation from retired Army Major Mike Lyons who suggests Ukraine could pull back in 24-48 hours after having killed a lot of Russian mercenaries. (Also kudos to Don Lemon for getting through this segment without saying anything terrifically dumb.)

Update: Another public statement that makes me think Ukraine is close to pulling out of Bakhmut.

The Ukrainian defense of the city of Bakhmut has “achieved its goals” and has been “a great strategic success” for the Ukrainian army, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said…

“As for the defense of Bakhmut, it achieved its goals by 1000%. The military implemented the plan to destroy the enemy’s main combat-ready grouping on the one hand and enabled the training and training of tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to prepare for a counterattack on the other,” Podolyak said.

“Even if the military leadership at some point decides to retreat to more favorable positions, the case of defending Bakhmut will be a great strategic success for the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a foundation for future victory,” he added.