Yes it’s still very early and no this poll won’t determine what happens a year from now. So why does it matter? It matters because it’s another poll which shows that the ground has shifted compared to just a few weeks ago.

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination…

Meanwhile, DeSantis is ahead by even more — a whopping 11 points — among Americans who say they voted in a 2016 Republican primary or caucus in their state…

When asked in mid-October who they “would rather see” as the 2024 GOP presidential nominee, 45% of registered voters who are Republicans or Republican leaners said Trump. Thirty-six percent said DeSantis.

Asked now which of the two candidates they would “vote for” if their state’s primary or caucus were held today, the same group says DeSantis by a 47% to 42% margin — a net swing of 14 percentage points in DeSantis’s direction over the span of six eventful weeks.

Yahoo didn’t create a likely voter model but did ask respondents if they had voted in a 2016 GOP primary. Among those who said yes, DeSantis’ lead was even larger.

Among the 24% of U.S. adults who say they cast a GOP primary or caucus vote in 2016, DeSantis already claims majority support (51%) in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, while Trump lags far behind (40%).

The only group where Trump held a lead was those who identified as “strong” Republicans. He led that group 53-39.

Yesterday the NY Times took a look at all of the early polling on the GOP side and concluded that, while Trump still has his supporters, the situation has changed.

Donald Trump’s support in the Republican Party has not collapsed, and perhaps it never will. But a look at the major polls taken since Election Day suggests that the ice is shifting beneath his feet.

The data also shows Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida gaining ground in hypothetical 2024 matchups, even though he has yet to declare his intentions…

Marquette University Law School: poll conducted from Nov. 15 to 22, 67 percent of Republicans said they had a favorable impression of Trump, with 32 percent unfavorable. In Marquette’s previous six surveys, Trump’s favorability rating ranged from 70 to 76 percent among the same group.

The percentage of Republicans who said they would like to see Trump run for president in 2024 also declined, to 55 percent in mid-November from a high of 64 percent in July.

The caveat that always comes up with these polls is that the nomination is not a head to head battle. What happens when there are 8-10 candidates all vying for attention?

YouGov/Economist: This poll, conducted in late November, looked a little more closely at the potential 2024 Republican field. And the results reinforce a fear voiced by many of Trump’s critics: that a larger pool of rivals appears to help him, just as it did in 2016.

Thirty-six percent of Republicans said they would prefer Trump as their nominee, versus 30 percent for DeSantis. Everyone else — including Donald Trump Jr., because why not ask? — was in single digits. Two weeks earlier, when the same pollster looked at a head-to-head contest, DeSantis led the elder Trump by 36 percent to 29 percent.

With lots of money and complete name recognition, Trump will start off with a big advantage over lesser known rivals. So while he won’t be able to run the kind of inevitability campaign he might have expected even a few months ago, he can still battle his opponents one at a time before they can gain traction (as he did in 2016). Will it work for him again? My own take is that it will not be the same experience for Trump precisely because DeSantis will enter with a lot of support and money.

The Washington Post reported yesterday that DeSantis is quietly meeting with top donors.

Invitations went out this week for an “intimate dinner” on Sunday in Miami with DeSantis and his wife, said two people familiar with the details who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preview a private event. The invitations were addressed to the governor’s “strongest supporters.” One person said additional gatherings may take place in other parts of the state…

DeSantis has more than $70 million held in reserve from his reelection campaign that he may seek to use in service of a presidential bid. He established himself as his party’s most dominant fundraiser this cycle, bringing in more than $200 million between a campaign committee and an aligned PAC…

People who have spoken to DeSantis about the 2024 contest say he has not made up his mind about a possible campaign. One ally predicted that any announcement would come after Florida’s legislative session ends in May.

So, bottom line, Trump does better in a field against a bunch of smaller, lesser known opponents. DeSantis does better when it’s him vs. Trump. My guess, and that’s all it is at this point, is that DeSantis will be able to enter the race as Trump’s top competitor and will have the staying power to eventually make this a 2 man race even if it doesn’t start out that way.