What in the world just happened? China’s former leader, 79-year-old Hu Jintao, who stepped down in 2013 was just pulled out of his seat next to Xi Jinping at a very high profile public event by two other men and led away.

The backstory here is that this is the end of China’s weeklong 20th Party Congress where Xi Jinping is being coronated for another term. There aren’t supposed to be any surprises at these events. Everything is carefully choreographed. But today, with the media present, Hu Jintao seems to have been hauled out against his will. Here’s video showing him actually being pulled up out of his chair momentarily.

【胡锦涛动作显示不自愿地被带离场】
【拒绝"被搀扶"、试图再坐下、拍打李克强手臂、习近平反应冷淡】
法新社画面显示，工作人员首先拿起了胡锦涛的眼镜，当尝试搀扶他时，胡锦涛右手缩回去，然后胡锦涛伸手拿习近平枱上的文件，工作人员即时制止。之后习近平头部转向相反方向，没有再理会胡锦涛。 pic.twitter.com/Y32PJyksP1

— 自由亚洲电台 (@RFA_Chinese) October 22, 2022

This clip below overlaps with the one above a bit and shows him being escorted out.

What an extraordinary scene: Xi Jinping’s immediate predecessor Hu Jintao is escorted out of the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party’s congress. Exchanges a brief comment with Xi as he is led away. https://t.co/QnjbknwAlJ

— Jeremy Cliffe (@JeremyCliffe) October 22, 2022

So, what just happened? State media wasn’t saying at first then claimed he was ill.

The choreographed show of unity was undermined by an unexpected break from the program as former party general secretary Hu Jintao was abruptly led away by aides. The 79-year-old, like most retired Chinese leaders, rarely appears in public, and so his graying hair and visibly frail appearance at the opening of the congress became a point of discussion for Pekingologists…

State media has not explained — or even mentioned — the early departure in Chinese-language coverage of the congress. After widespread discussion of the event in non-Chinese press and on Twitter, which is blocked in China, the state-run Xinhua News Agency tweeted that because Hu “was not feeling well during the session, his staff, for his health, accompanied him to a room next to the meeting venue for a rest. Now, he is much better.”

CNN was covering the removal as it happened and had their signal in China censored.

Due to the opacity of Chinese elite politics, the party is unlikely to offer a public explanation on Hu’s sudden exit. The dramatic moment has not been reported anywhere in Chinese media, or discussed on Chinese social media, where such conversation is highly-restricted. But it has set off a firestorm of speculation overseas.

CNN was censored on air in China when reporting on Hu’s exit from the meeting Saturday.

Foreign Policy has a story up offering three possible explanations. Possibility one is a health crisis, perhaps even an unexpected positive COVID test. The other two possibilities are more political.

The second possibility is that information suddenly came up that made Xi—who would have had to personally approve any such move—afraid that Hu might abstain or even vote against him in the rounds of otherwise unanimous voting that finished off the Party Congress. That could have been a remark by Hu to his former colleagues backstage or perhaps even signs of dementia that caused a sudden panic that something might go wrong. That would make Hu’s confusion understandable.

But the third and most disturbing possibility is that it was planned, and we just witnessed Xi deliberately and publicly humiliate his predecessor—possibly as a precursor to wielding the tools of party discipline, followed by judicial punishment, against him. This would be an extraordinary move but one that rammed home the message of Xi’s absolute power—something reinforced by the rest of the Party Congress, which just solidified Xi as the “core” of the party in the (often modified and mostly symbolic) Chinese Constitution and where he has been front and center as he takes an unprecedented third term.

Even the BBC is reporting that something like that last possibility seems worth considering given that Hu Jintao’s rule leadership was seen as, in some ways, opposite of Xi Jinping’s approach.

The Hu years – he held the presidency between 2003 and 2013 – were seen as a time of opening up to the outside world and increased tolerance of new ideas.

The 2008 Beijing Olympics was a peak for international exposure. Foreign companies were setting up here, tourists were flooding in, the internet was more free, local media outlets started doing decent journalism and China’s global reputation was constantly improving…

Xi Jinping has taken the country in a very different direction, with him at the “core” and unable to be challenged.

The current government has encouraged an explosion in nationalist sentiment, showing little concern for what anyone else thinks about its handling of anything. Instead, the message for other leaders has been that China’s time has arrived and you will mess with this nation at your own peril.

So whether this was intentional or not, it definitely feels a bit symbolic, i.e. the new strongman leader having his tolerant predecessor hauled out. But who knows. Maybe it was something much less dramatic than that. One China watcher on Twitter noted that the evening news still included lots of video of Hu Jintao at the event (before he was removed). Had he been some kind of attempt at denunciation, you would think word would have gone out to make him disappear from state media or to cover the moment of his humiliation. Instead, it appears China kept Hu in the broadcast but covered up his removal.

About the Hu Jintao incident and how it came up in the official state broadcaster's Evening News (Xinwen Lianbo): here is a short edit of the 40 min show showing that Hu is featured several times in first 7+ min, and how afterwards the empty chair is clearly visible besides Xi. pic.twitter.com/itjr9kHQim

— Manya Koetse (@manyapan) October 22, 2022