There was a new Monmouth poll out yesterday which indicated a general trend in polling in favor of the GOP after a summer in which Democrats seemed to recover from their previous doldrums. Today, the NY Times sees evidence of that shift having an impact on Senate races, particularly the ones in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

On average, Republicans have gained three points across 19 post-Labor Day polls of the key Senate battleground states, compared with pre-Labor Day polls of the same states by the same pollsters.

The shift is similar to what we observed a few weeks ago. What’s changed with more data: We can be sure that the polling shift is real, and we have more clarity about where Republicans are making their biggest gains — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin…

John Fetterman still leads Dr. Mehmet Oz in the polls taken since Labor Day. In fact, he basically leads in every one of them, by an average of around four percentage points.

But Dr. Oz has nonetheless made significant gains. On average, he has closed by a net of six percentage points in post-Labor Day polling, compared with surveys by the same pollsters taken before Labor Day.

Nate Cohn argues there are two possible explanations for this shift. One is that as the election gets closer, some Republicans are coming home to the party even if they aren’t thrilled with Dr. Oz. The other possibility is that the attacks on Fetterman’s health are starting to hurt him. Cohn argues the reality is probably a mix of both things. Whatever the case, the race has moved from a possible blowout to a statistical tie. Fetterman may lead all the polls but that lead is either within the margin of error or close to it.

Cook Political Report sees the same shift and today announced it was putting Pennsylvania back in the “toss-up” column.

The Cook Political Report on Tuesday moved Pennsylvania’s Senate race back into its “toss up” category, less than two months after moving the contest into the “lean Democratic” column…

An Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey released last week showed Fetterman’s lead over Oz shrinking from 4 points in August to 2 points in September. However, a USA Today-Suffolk University poll released on Tuesday showed Fetterman leading Oz by 6 percentage points, at 46 percent to 40 percent. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Fetterman leading by 4.3

Dr. Oz also announced some good news today about fundraising:

Republican Mehmet Oz’s Senate campaign in Pennsylvania raised $17.2 million between July and September — including $7 million from Oz’s own money — a campaign official tells Axios. These are big numbers and reflect a high-stakes race that may be narrowing by the minute.

Oz’s third-quarter numbers are an exponential increase from the previous quarter, which partly overlapped the primary election contest and in which Oz raised $5 million, of which $3.2 million was a personal loan.

Fetterman hasn’t released his fundraising totals yet so w don’t know how that will compare but it sounds like Oz will at least have enough money to be competitive in the closing weeks of the race.

The other place where there has been a significant shift is Wisconsin where Sen. Ron Johnson has pulled ahead of Mandela Barnes.

In Wisconsin, Barnes trails Johnson by five points in a new poll conducted for the AARP by Biden pollster John Anzalone and Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio.

A Fox News poll released this week, which showed Johnson ahead by four points, found 44% of Wisconsin voters believing Barnes’ views are “too extreme” — a point higher than those who viewed Johnson the same way. The share of voters who now view Barnes as too extreme spiked 14 points in the last month.

As we’ve discussed before, Republicans also seem to be doing pretty well in Nevada. Beege wrote about some fresh concerns on that front yesterday.

Nate Cohn concludes that all of this looks a little murky right now. These races are close enough that a subtle shift in either direction in the final weeks could determine the winner. But there is a wild card to consider. Previous polling has arguably favored Democrats in ways that didn’t hold up on election day. We’ll only have to wait a few more weeks to see if 2022 will be a repeat of that pattern.