Monmouth University released the results of a new poll today which found that the pendulum of public sentiment about control of congress seems to be swinging back toward the GOP after a summer in which Democrats seemed to be on the rise. And the reason why this is happening seems pretty clear. Voters remain more concerned about the economy and crime than about climate change and abortion.

Economic issues are a bigger factor in this year’s midterm elections than concerns about rights and democracy, according to the latest Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Democrats prioritize a fairly wide range of issues from climate change to abortion, while Republicans focus on a more limited set including inflation, crime, and immigration. Independents, though, tend to hone in on one issue above all: rising prices. Further dampening Democrats’ prospects are the poor numbers President Joe Biden gets for his performance on the issues most important to independents.

Republicans have made slight gains in the public’s preference for party control of Congress since the summer. Currently, 36% of Americans say they want the GOP in charge and another 11% have no initial preference but lean toward Republican control. Democratic control is preferred by 34% with another 10% leaning toward the Democrats. The combined 47% who choose Republican control is up from 43% in August, while the 44% support level for Democratic control is down from 50%.

Here’s a little chart showing the change in direction since the summer:

NATIONAL POLL: Which party do Americans want in control of Congress?
36% GOP
11% not matter, but lean GOP
34% DEM
10% not matter, but lean DEM
8% not matter, no leanhttps://t.co/YXPw36C53D pic.twitter.com/rseBJ1lYCf

— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) October 3, 2022

As I said last week on Twitter, Democrats may have peaked too early. The shock of the Dobbs decision may not be wearing off but as we continue moving toward a recession and gas prices are once again on the rise, it’s just not the top issue. Monmouth says it comes in 7th place.

Just brutal for Democrats…

via new Monmouth poll: https://t.co/BfrSaspp6W pic.twitter.com/4hRL9OHZVX

— Nathan Brand (@NathanBrandWA) October 3, 2022

The fact that gas prices are up isn’t helping Democrats. Things are especially bad here in southern California. This report was published today:

Gasoline prices hit record highs overnight in Los Angeles and Riverside counties. Orange County broke its record over the weekend.

The average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the Los Angeles-Long Beach area rose less than a penny Monday morning, but it was enough to set a new record at $6.466, according to the AAA website.

We’re still about five cents short of a new record state-wide but it’s enough to make filling up your car a miserable experience. And while things aren’t nearly as bad nationwide, gas prices have been rising overall. A week ago the nationwide average for regular gas was $3.725. Today we’re at $3.799. Only a few cents difference but it’s going in the wrong direction. And Democrats hoping for a reprieve before election day should probably abandon that hope.

An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start of the coronavirus pandemic this week, a historic move that energy analysts say could push oil prices back toward triple digits.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers, a group often referred to as OPEC+, will meet in Vienna, Austria, on Wednesday to decide on the next phase of production policy.

The other top issue is crime which also isn’t going to help Democrats who are still dealing with a “defund the police” hangover from two years ago. Violent crime isn’t up everywhere but in places where it is this is a major story. For instance, Chicago had 34 shootings this weekend including two children. A 7-year-old boy was shot in the leg and a 3-year-old boy was killed, both while riding in cars with their parents. Stories like that are, fortunately, still relatively rare but they understandably horrify a lot of people.

Getting back to that Monmouth poll, it’s hard to see how Democrats’ chances improve unless the public’s assessment of the top issues changes first:

When asked which group of issues is more important in their support for Congress this year, concerns about the economy and cost of living (54%) outpace concerns about fundamental rights and democratic processes (38%) among all Americans. Republicans prioritize the economy (71%), while Democrats prioritize rights (67%). Independents are more likely to give preference to economic issues (61%) than concerns about rights and democracy (29%).

“Democrats are all over the place when it comes to their key issues. This makes it difficult for the party to create a cohesive messaging strategy to motivate its base. Republicans, on the other hand, just have to hammer away at rising prices and ‘the wolf is at the door’ to get their voters riled up,” said Murray. He added, “A major problem for Democrats is their base messaging doesn’t hold as much appeal for independents as the GOP issue agenda does.

With about five weeks to go, I don’t see how the GOP edge on issues could possible change in time. Of course that doesn’t mean the GOP is guaranteed to win the House or the Senate as all of these races come down to individual candidates but it looks like Democrats are still fighting an uphill battle this fall.