Does this CNN poll qualify as good news for Joe Biden? Before we answer that question let’s review some of the polls we’ve covered so far this month.

• July 5: Biden is at 36% in a Monmouth poll.
• July 6: Biden is at 30% in a Civiqs poll.
• July 11: Biden is at 33% in a NY Times poll.
• July 17: Biden is at 40% in a Fox News poll.

Overall, not a very good average. So with that in mind is this new poll from CNN good news or bad news?

Biden’s approval rating in the poll stands at 38%, with 62% disapproving. His approval ratings for handling the economy (30%) and inflation (25%) are notably lower. Rising costs are a primary economic pressure for most Americans: 75% call inflation and the cost of living the most important economic problem facing their family…

With midterm elections approaching, the poll finds no indication that Biden’s standing with the public is improving — and among some critical constituencies, it is worsening. Among Democrats, for example, Biden’s approval numbers have softened by 13 points since the spring (from 86% in a late April through early May poll to 73% now), while his numbers among independents and Republicans have held about even. Biden’s approval rating among Democrats for handling the economy is also on the decline (62% approve, down from 71% this spring). And on inflation, it is barely above water (51% of Democrats approve, 47% disapprove).

That 30% approval on the economy matches the CNBC poll Ed wrote about this morning. So this is not an outlier. Biden also continues to slide with minority groups, including black Americans who, as CNN points out, have been some of Biden’s strongest supporters in the past.

Among people of color, 45% now approve of Biden’s overall performance, down from 54% in the spring. That decline includes a 6-point dip among Black adults and a 9-point decline among Hispanic adults. Biden’s approval ratings for handling the economy and inflation now break negative among Black adults, who have been among the President’s strongest backers (47% approve and 52% disapprove on the economy, while 34% approve and 65% disapprove on inflation)…

The public’s perceptions of the economy and of how things are going in the country overall are deeply negative and worsening. Since the spring, the share saying things are going badly for the country has climbed 11 points to 79%, the highest since February 2009, and shy of the all-time worst reached in November 2008 by just four points. That shift comes largely among Democrats. Just 38% of Democrats now say things are going well in the country, down from 61% this spring. Likewise, there’s been a steep drop among people of color, from 41% saying things were going well in the spring to 27% now.

Only 18% of Americans describe the nation’s economy as in good shape, while 82% say economic conditions are poor.

But there is some good news for Bidn. His personal favorability rating is still higher than that of VP Harris:

A year and a half ago, just before their inauguration, 59% held a favorable opinion of Biden and 51% had a favorable view of Kamala Harris. Now, those figures stand at 36% and 32% respectively.

Honestly, I don’t see any good news in this poll for Biden or Democrats. The crisis of competence that started last year with the withdrawal from Afghanistan has now spread to every issue. Even on the issues where he’s doing slightly better, immigration and Ukraine, he’s still underwater. And frankly, I think the only reason he’s getting 39% on immigration is that the media has by and large decided to give him a pass. If you look at the situation objectively it’s arguably as bad as it has ever been with no real end in sight.

But the big problem is inflation and I’m on record saying there’s not much Biden can do about that at this point. Whether this ends in a soft landing (unlikely) or a recession, Biden is just along for the ride. And that means there’s not much hope of an uptick in his fortunes anytime soon.

Update: CNN’s Manu Raju puts the summer polls in order for us from best to worst.

CNN POLL
June 13-July 13 (at similar points)

Bush, 2002        73%
Kennedy, 1962     69%
Bush, 1990        69%
Eisenhower, ‘54  62%
Nixon, 1970       55%
Obama, ‘10       50%
Clinton, ‘94     44%
Reagan, ‘82      44%
Carter, ‘78      42%
Trump, ‘18       39%
Biden, ‘22       38%

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) July 18, 2022