The American Federation of Teachers hired a democratic polling firm to ask questions of likely voters in seven battlegound states (AZ, FL, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI). The results can only be seen as terrible news for the union.

The survey, conducted by Hart Research in seven battleground states in May and provided first to NBC News, found Republicans had a 39% to 38% advantage on which party voters trust more on education…

Evident in the polling and messaging efforts is a concession that Democrats have lost their edge on education and need to execute an aggressive and sophisticated plan to get it back.

In a memo accompanying the survey, pollsters Molyneux, Geoff Garin and Alicia Williams identify a four-part communications strategy: frame Republicans as politicizing education; emphasize Democrats’ preference for investing in schools; highlight the most extreme proposals from conservatives; and reinforce the idea that parents have an important role in ensuring their kids get a good education.

Here’s the question and the results from the survey.

Then there’s a question about what schools should be focused on. These are ranked in the order of the percent of respondents who included that particular answer in the top 3 things schools ought to be doing. Tops on the list at 58% is “Making sure students have strong fundamental skills in reading, math, and science.” The next three items are, simply put, life skills, critical thinking and college prep. Understanding the good and bad of American history comes in 5th at 27%, then social and emotional skills like self-control (25%) followed by a bunch of items that sound like stand ins for progressive goals: An inclusive environment (22%), prep for a diverse workplace (17%), becoming engaged citizens (15%). None of these are bad things in the abstract but in practice they all sound like an opportunity for more DEI consultants to take over classrooms. Here’s the full results:

The highlight here for the AFT/the left is a question about whether parents are satisfied with the teaching of “racial issues and the role of race.” A full 60% said they were totally dissatisfied. However when this subset of respondents was asked why, the answers were mixed. The top answer (33% of the 60%) was that it was important to teach history. Just 19% said there was not enough teaching about racial topics while 18% said such teaching “divides society/creates and continues racism.” A simplified question about the teaching of racial issues showed a plurality (37%) wanted more teaching on that topic.

But when it came to gender ideology the results were very different. Here 58% said they were totally dissatisfied with what was being taught. Of those, 31% said students were too young for the material and 27% said it should be left to parents. Only 11% (again, out of the 58% dissatisfied) thought there was not enough teaching on these topics. Again, a simplified question found a plurality of respondents (43%) wanted less of this in schools, about double the percentage who wanted more time spent on this.

Remember the so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bill that was passed in Florida which prevented the teaching of gender identity topics to students in K through 2nd grade? It was uniformly treated as extremist by the media but it looks like it’s the kind of extremism that a plurality of people in battleground states agree with by about 2:1. You certainly never got the impression that the bill, which focused on young children, might be broadly popular from the biased coverage.

And there’s more bad news in the poll for unions. For instance, unions come in third behind teachers and parents on a list of who respondents trust.

When asked who is responsible for politicizing education, more respondents blamed Democrats than Republicans. Ouch, that can’t be what they were hoping to see.

Bottom line, a lot of bad news for Democrats and unions (but I repeat myself) in a poll the AFT paid for taken by a Democratic firm.