Ed wrote about the growing divide between the Iranian ruling council, led by the current President of Iran, and the IRGC.
Those cracks are growing into a chasm, just as Trump and Netanyahu have been hoping.
BREAKING 🔴
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 7, 2026
Reuters: Cracks emerging in Iran's leadership one week after Khamenei's killing.
• IRGC furious after President Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf states and pledged to stop strikes on their territory — he was forced into a partial climbdown
• Hardline cleric Hamid…
BREAKING 🔴
Reuters: Cracks emerging in Iran's leadership one week after Khamenei's killing.
• IRGC furious after President Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf states and pledged to stop strikes on their territory — he was forced into a partial climbdown
• Hardline cleric Hamid Rasai called Pezeshkian's stance "unprofessional, weak and unacceptable"
• Clerics accelerating appointment of a new Supreme Leader — decision possible as early as Sunday
• Mojtaba Khamenei (son) is the frontrunner, backed by the IRGC, but is untested and has alienated moderates
• Even the interim leadership council is split — judiciary chief Mohseni-Ejei directly contradicted Pezeshkian, saying strikes on regional states "will continue"
And you can add to that a third variable: the Iranian regular military, which is not, as with the IRGC, an entirely ideological organization filled with zealots, but a more or less professional military force that may be staffed by people who are attached to the regime, but whose allegiance is more to the state than to the regime itself. Otherwise, they would be in the IRGC.
Regime infighting: Bridgier General Qalibaf directly contradicts President Pezeshkian, stating that Iran will continue attacking neighboring countries hosting US forces.
— Mehdi Yahyanejad (@mehdiy_fa) March 7, 2026
He specifically says the mission of the armed forces is based on the guidance of the “martyred” Khamenei,… https://t.co/u10ppf1RiN
Regime infighting: Bridgier General Qalibaf directly contradicts President Pezeshkian, stating that Iran will continue attacking neighboring countries hosting US forces.
He specifically says the mission of the armed forces is based on the guidance of the “martyred” Khamenei, implying that they are not obeying the politicians of the Islamic Republic.
Earlier today, Iranian President Pezeshkian apologized for attacking non-combatant countries in the Persian Gulf, not so much because he was really sorry, but because these countries have massive military power on their own and have been threatening to enter the war against Iran.
NEW | Iran continued drone and ballistic missile attacks on Gulf states despite President Masoud Pezeshkian’s order to suspend strikes unless attacks on Iran originated from their territory. Two Iranian drones struck United Arab Emirates (UAE) territory between March 6 at 3:00… pic.twitter.com/dITTNtxfXD
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 7, 2026
NEW | Iran continued drone and ballistic missile attacks on Gulf states despite President Masoud Pezeshkian’s order to suspend strikes unless attacks on Iran originated from their territory. Two Iranian drones struck United Arab Emirates (UAE) territory between March 6 at 3:00 PM ET and March 7 at 8:00 AM ET, including a strike on the Dubai International Airport. Iranian drone and ballistic missile strikes from March 6 to March 7 also targeted US bases in Saudi Arabia, Saudi energy infrastructure, and civilian infrastructure. The Saudi Defense Ministry said it intercepted eight Iranian drones and one ballistic missile. A separate missile that targeted US forces at Prince Sultan Airbase fell in an uninhabited area.
Iran has continued to launch ballistic missile barrages at Israel since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff on March 6. Iran conducted at least six ballistic missile barrages targeting Israel between March 6 at 3:00 PM ET and March 7 at 8:00 AM ET. ISW-CTP has not observed any missile impacts at the time of this writing.
The IRGC basically sidelined him, disavowing his promise not to attack Gulf states, and they are still doing so.
The attacks by regime loyalists on President Pezeshkian are getting harsher by the hour (for his comments that the regime would stop attacking neighboring countries). Now he is being accused of being an American spy 👇 pic.twitter.com/DTYeqUI7gM
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) March 7, 2026
Now, some are attacking Pezeshkian as a possible Israeli spy. From a proxy Supreme Leader, as a member of the ruling council, to a traitor, all in a day.
There are reports of officers threatening their own troops with execution, or even actually executing troops, while many officers themselves are abandoning the troops in the field.
“They told the soldiers there that if you desert, we’ll execute you.”
— The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷 (@TheIranWatcher) March 7, 2026
Islamic Republic commanders reportedly gave this order to 18-year-old conscripts in Baneh, even as they fled themselves and abandoned their posts, leaving the soldiers as cannon fodder.
At least 30 conscripts… pic.twitter.com/f9MZYGFZ5m
“They told the soldiers there that if you desert, we’ll execute you.”
Islamic Republic commanders reportedly gave this order to 18-year-old conscripts in Baneh, even as they fled themselves and abandoned their posts, leaving the soldiers as cannon fodder.
At least 30 conscripts were killed in this incident alone.
There are increasing reports in Iran of similar cases where IRGC commanders threaten soldiers with execution while sacrificing them and fleeing themselves.
These reports are plausible, but the claim is also so helpful to accelerating regime collapse that we shouldn't assume they aren't propaganda. Even if they are rumors, not facts, they serve a similar purpose, spreading uncertainty in one of the key pillars of regime support, and the most vulnerable to crumbling.
BREAKING: The Iranian Navy’s Hangam-class landing ship IRIS Lavan (514) has taken shelter in Kochi following threats posed by the U.S. Navy against Iranian naval vessels. This is now the second Iranian Navy ship to take shelter in a foreign country and declare neutrality, with… pic.twitter.com/rzMfvj91bk
— Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) March 7, 2026
Even nominally friendly countries are flirting with turning on Iran, perhaps to the point of taking military action against the country. Both Turkey and Pakistan are extremely angry at the IRGC policies, and unafraid to say so.
Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, warns the Iranians following the launch of the Iranian missile towards Turkey:
— Chaya’s Clan (@ChayasClan) March 7, 2026
We told our Iranian friends: "If it was a missile that went off course, that's another matter. But if more come after it, our advice to you is: under no… pic.twitter.com/D2eLhVb4Nc
Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, warns the Iranians following the launch of the Iranian missile towards Turkey:
We told our Iranian friends: "If it was a missile that went off course, that's another matter. But if more come after it, our advice to you is: under no circumstances should anyone in Iran embark on such an adventure."
(Abu Ali)
Breaking 🚨
— Islamabad Post (@ISBPost) March 7, 2026
Asim Munir has assured Khalid bin Salman that if Iran launches another attack on Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will target Iran. pic.twitter.com/tHFxAEi6zZ
Disarming Iran is a primary goal of Operation Epic Fury. But regime change is surely the goal of Operation Roaring Lion, and no doubt Trump wants Israel to succeed.
🚨 “Our commanders have abandoned us. They’re hiding like rats.”
— The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷 (@TheIranWatcher) March 6, 2026
An Iranian soldier in Lorestan says commanders have deserted their posts and gone into hiding fearing Israeli and US bombardment, leaving conscripts like him to face the danger alone.
He says soldiers are sleeping… pic.twitter.com/QdAKuVLiZU
“Our commanders have abandoned us. They’re hiding like rats.”
An Iranian soldier in Lorestan says commanders have deserted their posts and gone into hiding fearing Israeli and US bombardment, leaving conscripts like him to face the danger alone.
He says soldiers are sleeping outside in barracks yards, the desert, and the wilderness out of fear.
Reports like this are becoming increasingly common, with soldiers saying their commanders are sacrificing their lives while protecting their own.
The American intelligence community, or should I say elements within it, are trying to undermine the president by leaking that they believe regime change from the air is impossible and the ultimate goals of the operation will not be met, but the facts on the ground seem to indicate that the airstrikes are already making that goal look very achieveable.
NEW: U.S. Intelligence report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime. By @wstrobel and me. https://t.co/E3NzJNVuoQ
— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) March 7, 2026
Obviously, since the regime has yet to completely collapse, the pre-war assessment may still hold true.
The report says the prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country is “unlikely,” raising doubts about Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing pic.twitter.com/YaHwgoWB9d
— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) March 7, 2026
But if I had to bet, by the end of this conflict, the leader of Iran will not have the title "Ayatollah." Trump and Netanyahu are still putting a lot of chess pieces into the right places—the massive protests that will follow after the bombing of Tehran slows down has yet to come, and the invasion of Iran by Kurdish rebels is in its infancy.
Armed Clerics in Iran today:
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 7, 2026
"If you take to the streets, you will be treated as an Israeli soldier. We have issued an order to spill your blood."
The regime is terrified of its own people. pic.twitter.com/we1MDfA72s
There is more to come.
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