Back in January Chuck Todd rolled out NBC News’ midterm meter, a graphic designed to summarize some historically significant public polling indicators into one simple prediction about where things seem to be headed. When he first rolled it out, the news was decidedly bad for Democrats.
Now let us show you what a shellacking looks like: In 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 — when the president’s party suffered big losses — overwhelming majorities said the country was headed on the wrong track before the election; each president’s job rating was below 50 percent; and the president’s party trailed on the generic ballot.
So with less than a year until the November midterms, what did the latest NBC News poll tell us? It was pointing more towards the shellacking territory.
A lot has happened since January including the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of unprecedented sanctions on Russia. So how are things looking now? Based on NBC’s own polling conducted last week, the answer is not any better for Democrats.
“The current round track in our poll, 71%,” Todd said. He continued, “What’s really striking is third straight poll where the direction of the country has been above 70%. Only been one other time we’ve had that in our poll…look 65% wrong track is a bad number, 71% that’s why it is in the shellacking category.”
Looking at Biden’s approval rating, NBC found he was 15 points underwater with 40% approval and 55% disapproval. Todd noted, “George W. Bush was at 39% in 2006.” That was the year that Democrats gained control of both the House and the Senate for the first time in 12 years.
Finally, Todd turned to the generic ballot where NBC shows Republicans at +2, 46% vs. 44%. Todd explained that while to the uninitiated this may sound close, in reality Democrats nearly always lead on this metric. “The bottom line is, generic ballot, if the Democrats are losing it means they’re going to get walloped,” Todd explained.
CNBC published a story about this same data with similar reactions.
President Joe Biden’s job approval ratings keep falling in his second year in the White House, with just 40% of Americans approving of the job he is doing, a new NBC News survey finds.
That is the lowest rating Biden has seen in his presidency…
“What this polls says is that President Biden and Democrats are headed for a catastrophic election,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinions Strategy, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, told NBC News.
Walloped. Shellacking. Catastrophic. Those are the big takeaways for Democrats from this poll. Here’s the clip of Chuck Todd and the Midterm Meter.