A new development out of Russia last night may spell the beginning of the end for the recent Ukrainian diversionary incursion into Russian territory. After seemingly taking the Russians by surprise by invading the farmlands of the Kursk Oblast, Vlodymir Zelinski began hyping the idea that he could force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table by threatening him on his home turf. He followed that up with a surprisingly effective drone and missile strike on the outskirts of Moscow. These moves no doubt bouyed the hopes of many of Ukraine's citizens. But yesterday, the Empire Struck Back, to borrow a phrase from Hollywood. Russia marched into the Kursk region in force and rapidly retook ten settlements in the region, sending the Ukrainian forces scattering back closer to their own border. So is this the end of the vaunted counteroffensive? (CNBC)

Russia said it has launched a major counteroffensive to retake large areas of its Kursk region that were seized by Ukrainian forces in the border incursion that began last month.

Russian Major General Apti Alaudinov, who commands special forces fighting in Kursk, said that Russian troops took back control of about 10 settlements in Kursk, which borders northeastern Ukraine.

“Our situation is good ... our units have gone on the offensive. Yesterday and by today [Wednesday], in total, about 10 settlements of the Kursk region were liberated,” Alaudinov, who is also deputy head of the Russian defence ministry’s military-political administration, told Russian state news agency TASS in comments translated by Google.

As you may recall, Ukraine began this counteroffensive last month and they definitely saw some early success. This was largely due to the fact that Russia hadn't bothered stationing many troops or serious armor in the region, not expecting Zelensky to pour his military resources into a region that had little strategic or military significance. Putin was more focused on continuing his advances on the Eastern front and initially didn't seem to invest much time into redeploying his troops. Now that situation has changed literally overnight.

Despite Ukrainian claims to the contrary, the troops that Zelensky reallocated to the Kursk incursion did seem to weaken his position in the Donetsk Oblast. By last week, the Russians had retaken Pokrovsk, making the Ukrainians pay a terrible price in the process. Now, Ukraine's hard-won gains in Kursk have largely disappeared. Zelensky is looking at starting over but with even fewer troops and armor available than he had before. It's difficult to find a way to describe this as anything other than a net loss for Ukraine. 

Just this morning, Antony Blinken was meeting with Zelensky to discuss American restrictions on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. What wasn't immediately clear was whether we were talking about freeing up the Ukrainians to strike even more deeply inside of Putin's territory or whether Zelinsky needed to back down for fear of further enraging the Russian bear. The White House has been keeping a leash on Zelensky's use of our weapons to strike inside Russia from the beginning. Only history will be able to judge whether that was the correct strategy or not, but at this point, it may not matter nearly as much. Ukraine has depleted its troops and armor at a vastly higher rate than the Russians in proportional terms. The time to hit them hard - assuming such a time was ever practical - would have been when they were still close to their maximum state of readiness. That moment has clearly passed.

Meanwhile, we seem to be no closer to tempting Putin to come to the table and work toward a negotiated peace settlement than we were a year ago. Ukraine still has no chance of being accepted into either NATO or the EU while there is still a war going on. Ukraine's allies, including the United States, do not appear to have much to offer Putin that he hasn't already taken for himself. I'm not even sure if Putin would have any reason to seriously entertain an offer of surrender from Ukraine at this point. As I've said here repeatedly, why give up on a war that you're winning? Not to paint too dark of a picture here, but NATO and the EU might want to be looking at some potential mass evacuation plans at this point.