The endless media cheerleading for Zelensky and Ukraine is beginning to show some serious cracks in the face of reality. That same reality hasn't seemed to do anything to dissuade the White House and certain Biden Republicans in the Senate from continuing to push for more billions of dollars for Kyiv for "as long as it takes." But an increasing number of voices in the media now seem to admit that the time period in question could be very long indeed. There is also a growing consensus suggesting that Ukraine will likely never be able to "beat" Russia or drive the Russian army fully out of Ukrainian territory. Even the Associated Press noted the two-year anniversary of the war by saying that Ukraine's future currently looks "bleak."

The future looks bleak for war-weary Ukraine: It is beset by shortages in soldiers and ammunition, as well as doubts about the supply of Western aid. Ukrainian forces also face a Russian enemy that has recently seized the initiative on the battlefield.

Two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion captured nearly a quarter of the country, the stakes could not be higher for Kyiv. After a string of victories in the first year of the war, fortunes have turned for the Ukrainian military, which is dug in, outgunned and outnumbered against a more powerful opponent.

As the war enters its third year, here is a look at the situation on the ground, the challenges ahead and some of the potential consequences if Ukraine does not acquire the people, ammunition and assistance it needs to sustain the fight.

The AP's assessment of the current situation and the prospects for the future seems to be reasonably accurate and realistic, so it's worth taking the time to read the entire piece. I hope more members of Congress choose to do that because a rather radical change of course seems to be required if Ukraine is to survive as an independent nation. As noted in the linked report, the Ukrainian military has just undergone yet another change in leadership after additional corruption was discovered in the military supply chain. They are running very low on ammunition of most types, doling out only limited rounds to their remaining troops.

That number of troops has dropped precipitously as well. Their military leaders complain regularly that they don't have enough fighters to launch offensive maneuvers and the soldiers don't get enough sleep most days because of the long shifts they must serve. The army is estimated to have a 25% shortage of troops across all brigades. Zelensky has said that he wants to conscript 450,000 to 500,000 more troops but he's not expected to get nearly that many. Those he does manage to put in uniform will likely include many who are well past their fighting years and others who will be serving against their will.

The cold hard truth is that the war is currently in a deadlock and has been since Ukraine's vaunted counteroffensive failed to materialize last summer. They've had some success in damaging Russia's fleet in the Black Sea, but the land war is not producing results. Russia has lost tens of thousands of troops as well, but they have much larger reserves to draw upon and they've proven effective in attracting foreign fighters, particularly from Afghanistan and Pakistan, who have plenty of combat experience. Ukraine was recently forced to surrender the city of Avdiivka and regroup to the west. If the Russians are allowed to continue to make advances like that, slow though they may be, Putin might start believing that he can still take the country entirely and overthrow its government.

Money and bullets alone aren't going to "win" this war for Ukraine. Rather than sending more pallets of cash, the United States should be calling for talks between all parties that might lead to at least a ceasefire. A negotiated peace will almost certainly have to include Ukraine ceding some or most of the territory occupied by the Russians. That will be a bitter pill to swallow, but it would give Vladimir Putin enough of a "victory" to point to that he might be able to walk away with his honor intact in front of his people. And Zelensky will still have a country left, albeit a bit smaller in territory. Meanwhile, NATO can avoid being dragged into another world war. It's not the most desirable outcome by any means, but sometimes reality is a harsh mistress/