Of all of the protests we’ve seen in the United States decrying Joe Biden’s tentative support of Israel in its war against Hamas, some of the loudest and most potentially violent have sprung up in Arab-American communities. Their blind support of Palestinians allows them to ignore the atrocities of the Hamas terrorists and label Biden a “sponsor of genocide.” This has Democratic strategists quite worried and for good reason. Arabs make up only a tiny percentage of the population, but they can account for many votes in several swing states that Biden will need to carry next year. But this trend also has some Republican strategists wondering if this might be an opportunity for the GOP to gain additional ground, which is almost certainly a mistake. Axios breaks down the numbers and key areas to watch in 2024.

Arab American and Muslim American anger over President Biden‘s handling of the Israel-Hamas war could be endangering his re-election in the majority of 2024 swing states.

Michigan, Virginia, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania all have notable pockets of these populations. There aren’t reliable statistics on how many are registered voters — but even tiny shifts of support in any of these super-tight states that Biden won in 2020 could make a difference.

It’s another case of Biden facing possible defections from heavily Democratic groups that in 2020 helped him take down former President Trump, Biden’s likely opponent again next year.

There may or may not be some “defections” among these Arab-American voters next year, but before anyone gets too excited about it, they should consider where such defectors might go. The people out there marching in the streets and calling for Palestine to be “free” are not a collection of conservatives in waiting. These are the people of AOC and Ilhan Omar. They are so far to the left that even Bernie Sanders probably looks at them and wonders if they might be a little too socialist.

These aren’t the type of voters who are going to suddenly turn around and cast a ballot for Donald Trump or anyone else on the GOP primary list. They typically have no interest in rebuilding American greatness, reducing crime, cutting spending, or closing the borders. Even for all of their grousing, some of them will likely still go to the polls next year and vote for Biden anyway.

Perhaps some of them won’t. But that doesn’t mean that the GOP should be expending any resources trying to attract them. We don’t need those voters. If they don’t vote for Biden, they’ll either stay home or find a third-party alternative. In either case, they’re already doing your work for you without requiring any courting. If Biden bleeds off enough votes in Michigan, Virginia, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, his hopes for a second term will have gone up in a puff of smoke before we bother counting the ballots.

While we can’t rely on that outcome (obviously) it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Axios digs in a bit deeper and finds that Michigan has an Arab-American population of at least 278,000. Biden carried Michigan last time by 154,000. No demographic group votes 100% in lockstep, but if a little more than half of them took their votes elsewhere, the previous edge would be erased. Other, non-Arab Michiganders who are simply fed up with conditions in America under Biden could fill in and overflow the rest of the gap.

The situation in Georgia is potentially even more ripe for the picking. Biden carried the Peach State by less than 12,000 votes. The Arab-American population there is almost five times larger. A similar ratio is found in Arizona. As I said, you can’t place too much faith in potential “defectors.” You have to go out and earn votes on your own wherever you can find them. But the job could be made a bit easier if your opponent’s core supporters find a reason to abandon ship.