The budget circus is gearing up for its next act in Washington to the great surprise of almost nobody. The current spending bill keeping the lights on in D.C. is set to expire next week on Friday the 16th. The appropriation committees have been in negotiations over this for months on end and prior to the election it looked as if there might have been a path toward some sort of bipartisan agreement in the works. But as of last night, the chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee said that the two sides were still separated by roughly $25 billion, with Republicans looking for more cuts to non-military spending and there may not be enough GOP support for the current version to pass. If that happens, Patrick Leahy and Nancy Pelosi are both threatening to put forward a one-year omnibus spending bill with no changes to current spending levels. The GOP would prefer a one-month extension, waiting until they take control of the House and could exert more leverage on the process. (Government Executive)

Congressional Democrats are threatening to pass a year-long stopgap funding bill that would freeze agency spending at their current levels through fiscal 2023, though lawmakers are calling the plan a “last resort” over fears it would severely hamper federal operations.

Negotiators remain divided on a top-line funding agreement that would set the totals for defense and non-defense spending and allow line-by-line appropriations bills to be written, lawmakers in both parties reiterated on Thursday, leaving an unclear path to avoiding a shutdown when the current continuing resolution expires after Dec. 16. Democrats said they will formally issue their own full-year, omnibus funding package on Monday. As Government Executive reported last week, they are crafting that proposal without Republican support.

Something has fallen apart between the leadership of both parties. As recently as one week ago, Mitch McConnell was saying that there was sufficient GOP support to get a one-year budget deal locked down. But the word on the street has it that McCarthy and the conservative GOP caucus members in the House have been pushing for a one-month plan.

The Democrats obviously don’t want to see that happen because that would give the new Republican Speaker a lot more control over the process. The alternative is something that nobody wants to talk about: another government shutdown right at Christmas. And most of the mainstream media will predictably place the blame for the shutdown on the Republicans again.

Traditionally, the period immediately following an election is supposed to be the time when Congress can get at least the bare minimum of its work done without too much grandstanding. That doesn’t seem to be the case this year, however. If the Democrats wind up pushing through a stopgap spending bill that lasts until next December, we will be on the cusp of the presidential primary (or primaries if Joe Biden bows out) kicking off in earnest. At that point, there will be little hope for any sort of bipartisan cooperation.

If I had to bet a nickel on this fight, I’d say that we won’t wind up with a shutdown, but there won’t be a comprehensive spending bill either. As far as I can tell, we may be on a path where temporary budget bandaids will become a permanent fixture in Washington.