The Senate race in Pennsylvania between Dr. Mehmet Oz and former Secretary of State John Fetterman has taken a rather odd and, at least for some, unpleasant turn during the final stretch before the midterm elections. As has been widely reported, Fetterman suffered a rather serious stroke this spring and his recovery, while looking promising in the view of his doctors, has been slower than anticipated and kept him largely off of the campaign trail. He has had difficulty with his speech and at least some motor functions by most reports.
This week, Oz was joined by Senator Pat Toomey in calling for Fetterman to agree to a debate prior to the election. Thus far, Fetterman has declined such invitations and most (though not all) of his public comments have been delivered by spokespeople. You might think that this series of events and the optics involved would give the voters pause. And in most previous political generations you would have been correct. But 2022 is turning out to be a rather unusual political season and not all of the old rules apply. Oz and Toomey are clearly hoping that’s not true and their motives for seeking the debate are both obvious and reasonable in a race like this. But as we’ll discuss below, that rule book may not be written in stone this year. (Associated Press)
Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz teamed up with U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey on Tuesday to publicly call on his Democratic rival, John Fetterman, to participate in a debate in their high-profile Pennsylvania race.
Oz and Toomey, holding a news conference in Philadelphia, also questioned Fetterman’s fitness for office and criticized his reluctance to speak with reporters since suffering a stroke in May. Fetterman has been sidelined for most of the summer while recovering, though he did appear Monday with President Joe Biden at a Labor Day parade in Pittsburgh and has spoken briefly at a number of events.
“What happens if a U.S. senator in an important state like Pennsylvania is elected, never having answered a legitimate question from a voter, from a newscaster … in a debate stage?” Oz said. “What would that mean for future campaigns around the country?”
Honestly, the importance of debates is largely overblown in the era of 24/7 cable news and social media. If the candidates have anything to say or wish to provide answers to questions, the voters will be able to find that information. But with that said, there is still something special about seeing candidates under the glare of the lights answering questions they were not provided in advance (unless you happen to be Hillary Clinton) and directly interacting with their opponents.
Oz and Toomey are well aware of this. They know, or at least believe they know that the sight of Fetterman struggling to articulate his answers or moving awkwardly at the lectern could leave viewers with doubts about his readiness for a seat in the Senate or possibly his long-term viability if he continues to experience health issues. Even the mere act of refusing to debate under these circumstances could, or at least should be a net negative for Fetterman’s hopes of victory.
But we’re not seeing that yet. The last polls we have from this race, including one that’s only a week old, show Fetterman leading outside the margins by five points. The RCP average for the race still has Fetterman up by 6.5. Oz hasn’t led in a single, widely regarded poll all summer, and Fetterman had his stroke in May. The voters have had plenty of time to absorb that information and take it into account.
Some might argue that candidate quality is playing a large factor. Mehmet Oz is more of a personality than a seasoned politician and he hasn’t exactly been flawless in his campaign style. It’s also not unreasonable to believe that some voters may actually feel a greater degree of empathy for Fetterman because of his medical issues. They may see Oz’s attacks on him in this fashion as a form of bullying.
But I will argue today that none of these are the true driving factors because the voters are not (for the most part) voting “for” or “against” either Oz or Fetterman. Most of the concerns I registered above have been moved to the back burner by this point and the battle lines have been drawn. You could have put the names of any of their primary opponents on the ballot and we would likely be looking at the same current status.
For too many Pennsylvania voters, they are not weighing the relative merits and promises of these candidates. They are voting for control of the Senate. They are voting based on the dire warnings they are hearing from both parties. They are voting for or against the control and possible return of Donald Trump. They are voting for abortion restrictions or abortion access. They are voting for either the return of law and order to their streets or the continuation of progressive policies that place more value on the lives of criminals than victims because their party told them it would be racist to do otherwise.
This is a trend that I believe we have been seeing in most of the Senate races in swing states. In Pennsylvania, neither of the candidates is a shining example of the next Reagan or JFK. And as depressing as it may be to consider, that doesn’t really matter. If the GOP were running Bugs Bunny and the Democrats put up Daffy Duck, I’m certain that we would be seeing a five-point race in one direction or the other and no clear idea who will make it across the finish line in November. So I really don’t believe that anyone will be lifted up or pushed further down whether Fetterman decides to participate in a debate or not. Most people in Pennsylvania aren’t voting for Fetterman or Oz. They’re choosing between Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer.
