So, is Nancy Pelosi going to Taiwan or not? Thus far she’s not saying, at least not publicly. Tensions are running high in the Taiwan Strait these days with increasingly frequent interactions between American and Chinese naval vessels. At the same time, China has been running almost daily military drills, with fighter jets crossing into the airspace of Taiwan’s economic zone. China has been consistent in saying they don’t want the Speaker to visit the island and that there will be “serious consequences” if she goes through with these plans. Apparently seeking to demonstrate just how “serious” they are, the Chinese launched yet another series of military exercises this week, leading to widespread air raid drills in Taiwan, as leaders there prepared for a possible military incursion. So is this just bluster on the part of Beijing or are we really getting ready to throw down? (Fox News)

Taiwan held widespread air raid drills on Monday as China doubled down on warnings to the U.S. against allowing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit the island.

Pelosi has defended her planned trip to the island, a region that China has long claimed as its sovereign territory. The Chinese foreign ministry doubled down on warnings that the trip could have “serious consequences” for the U.S.

“The Chinese side has made it clear to the U.S. on many occasions that it is firmly opposed to Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. We are fully prepared,” foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Monday.

China’s foreign ministry spokesman went on to say that his country is prepared to take unspecified “firm and forceful measures” if Pelosi shows up and that America should be held responsible for any “serious consequences.”

One thing I’d like to know is how the news of Pelosi’s planned trip leaked out to the public and to China to begin with. We regularly send congressional delegations and State Department officials for visits to Taiwan as a show of support, but they are almost never announced in advance. The Americans just seem to show up there, conduct a couple of meetings and fly back out. By that point, it’s really too late for China to do much of anything about it but complain. Did the Speaker’s office decide to purposely announce the trip in advance or was it leaked out?

The AP is reporting that an increasing number of Republicans have publicly voiced their support for Pelosi making the trip and they are urging Joe Biden to give a public endorsement of the idea.
More Republicans are urging her to go. One of the most vocal is Ben Sasse, who said that we need to demonstrate that Taiwan is an ally and if the Speaker wants to meet with Taiwanese officials, “there’s not a damn thing the Chinese Communist Party can do about it.”

The Republicans quoted in the linked article are making many of the same points that John made in support of having Pelosi make the trip. Backing down to China’s demands would be a sign of weakness and our other allies in the region might start leaning more toward China’s side if they fear that we can no longer protect them from a potential Chinese military threat. And even if our own military is advising against it, that’s a decision for Joe Biden to make because they work for him, not vice versa.

But at the same time, I would argue that Ben Sasse isn’t exactly correct when he says that there’s “not a damn thing” China could do about it. One option that they are already threatening is the establishment of a no-fly zone over the island. From that point on, any plane approaching Taiwan – potentially including the one carrying Pelosi – could be met in mid-flight by Chinese fighter jets seeking to turn them around when they are very far from home. If one of our carriers is in the region (as they usually are), our fighters could be in the mix in close proximity as well. At that point, it comes down to a question of either China backing down and losing face or a scenario where we wait to see who shoots first and then we’re off to the races.

It’s possible that a military conflict with China could be contained to that specific region without escalating to something global and potentially nuclear. But that’s not a 100% certainty. Besides, we’re already in a proxy war with Russia that could turn hot any day now. Do we really need a shootout with China on top of that? Our current handling of foreign policy questions continues to produce one disaster after another. I’m just crossing my fingers and hoping somebody doesn’t cause us to blunder our way into world war 3.