Sometimes our major political parties seem to run out of fresh blood and new ideas, leading them to try to revisit their greatest hits lists from the past. That may be what’s currently unfolding in New York State, where a petition has been launched asking people to encourage former Republican Governor George Pataki to challenge the Democratic nominee for Governor this fall, presumably current Governor Kathleen Hochul. It’s not as if he doesn’t have some direct experience should he apply for the job. After all, he served three terms in the office already, in addition to having been a mayor and a member of both legislative branches in the state. But does he really want the job? And would he have a shot at it if he does? (NY Post)

An effort is underway to draft former three-term Republican Gov. George Pataki to run again for the state’s top office.

The new Web site bringbackpataki.com urges New Yorkers to sign a petition to express their support for the move.

“Unite behind the fight to save our state, and join us to Bring Back Pataki,” the site says. “He has saved our State before, let’s elect him to do it again. Our best days are ahead for New York State!”

New York Republicans think they sense an opportunity amid tanking approval ratings for Democrats and an anticipated red wave in November. They’re hoping to reproduce the magic that Larry Hogan created in Maryland, where a Republican has managed to hold the governor’s office for multiple terms in a deep blue state while maintaining some of the highest approval ratings in the country. Pataki was the last Republican elected to the governorship in the Empire State, serving until 2006. But as the saying goes, that was then and this is now.

It’s not as if Pataki’s appetite for political power has faded in his retirement years. You may recall that he ran for the GOP nomination against Donald Trump in 2016, not that many people in the country really noticed. And some Republicans in New York seem to be arguing that if Pataki could be elected that recently, why not again in 2022?

While I hate to dampen anyone’s spirits, there’s actually some very compelling data available that answers the question. Back in 2002 (the last time Pataki was elected), Republicans were already in the minority in New York. They comprised 29% of the registered voters, compared to 47% for the Democrats. But there were a lot more unaffiliated and occasionally persuadable third-party voters at that time also. Today, GOP party registration in the state has sunk to 22% while the Democrats are over 50%.

It’s also worth noting that even in 2002 (and in 1998 for that matter), Patiki’s victories were considered something of a fluke. He prevailed in 2002 with a plurality of the vote, not a solid majority, largely owing to the presence of Independence Party candidate Thomas Golisano on the ballot, who took nearly 15% of the vote, draining support primarily away from Democratic candidate Carl McCall. Without Golisano on the ballot, Pataki might have lost even then.

Those conditions are not expected to be repeated this year. Unless some retired actress from a show such as Sex and the City were to suddenly show up and run a third-party campaign and drain votes away from Kathy Hochul (what a crazy idea, right?), it’s highly unlikely that Pataki or any Republican could carry the day in November no matter how high a red tsunami might rise across the rest of the nation.

On top of that, by the time the election rolls around, George Pataki will be 77 years old. Yes, I know we have older people in national office or trying to return there, but everyone has a shelf life in the eyes of the voters. Recent experience might push New York Republicans to seek someone more sprightly and energetic, perhaps only being in their sixties. All in all, this is a pleasant idea to speculate about, but it simply doesn’t seem realistic. I’d love to be wrong, but the math involved in such a proposition is quite daunting.