It was a sharp bet because Cheney understands the makeup of the Republican conference. Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman observed that the GOP House members can be divided into thirds—what he calls the Freedom Caucus, the Institutionalists, and the Floaters.

While Wasserman is correct about the internal divide, he’s a bit generous in both his descriptions and the assessment that the groups are divided equally. The actions of the past two months—from the coup attempt to the election-certification votes to the MQG and Cheney controversies—suggest that the division is actually pretty lopsided.

I would posit that it looks more like this:

1) The Fear Caucus (Floaters)
2) The Kraken Caucus (Freedom)
3) The Milhouse Caucus (Institutionalists)

When you look at the last two months, it’s pretty clear that the Milhouses are a rump. The Krakens are a bit less than a third, but growing. And the Fear caucus is, by far, the biggest; they’re the group McCarthy represents.