Cases have leveled out worldwide, too. “The most likely explanation is the more contagious variants of the virus, like the B.1.1.7 variant, which was first detected in Britain,” David Leonhardt writes at The New York Times. Business Insider’s Jim Edwards points out that the uptick in cases and deaths could be statistical noise, but notes that worrisome new variants have also popped up in California and New York.

“Taking into account the counterbalancing rises in both vaccinations and variants, along with the high likelihood that people will stop taking precautions, a fourth wave is highly likely this spring,” Apoorva Mandavilli reports at the Times, citing a majority of 21 experts interviewed on the pandemic. “But they stressed that it is not an inevitable surge, if government officials and individuals maintain precautions for a few more weeks,” and “COVID-19 deaths will most likely never rise quite as precipitously as in the past.”