Three basic paths for the post-Trump era GOP

MAGA Forever: In this scenario, a significant portion of the party sticks with Trump once he leaves office. Candidates running for office embrace him to stave off primary challenges and to coast to reelection in safe seats. Many of the candidates are ones who the Trump family has recruited or endorsed. And in 2024, either Trump himself, a family member, or another certified MAGA politician emerges as the presidential nominee. The hope would be that this could resurrect the winning coalition that vaulted Trump to victory in 2016. The thinking would have to be that opposition to President Biden, the media, Big Tech, and so forth energizes this crowd in the midterm elections and beyond. The risk of this approach is obvious — in the wake of the Capitol riot and with Trump’s approval rating dipping to as low as 29% in a recent Pew poll, the outgoing president is damaged goods. The longer the GOP remains tied to him, the more out of reach many voters who might otherwise vote with the GOP would become.