Mr. Towery, a practicing attorney living in Florida, is a former columnist with Creators Syndicate and founder and chairman of InsiderAdvantage, a political news site. If people are eager to hear his take on this election, it’s because in 2016 Mr. Towery was among the very few pollsters who called it for Donald Trump. On this election eve, with most polls and models again predicting all but certain defeat for Mr. Trump, I ask Mr. Towery if he’s still confident the president will pull out another victory.

“I am,” he answers, “and I’m increasingly confident.”…

Start with the black vote. Though he knows Republicans have for years been predicting a swing in the black vote only to be disappointed when it doesn’t come in, he says 14% or 15% for Mr. Trump isn’t impossible this year, which would be up from 8% in 2016. He’s also now seeing a movement toward Mr. Trump from young voters who are tired of being locked up at home because of Covid-19 and see Mr. Biden as the candidate of shutdowns. The momentum, Mr. Towery says, has clearly shifted to the president.

He also holds a contrarian view of the president’s rallies. Unlike media elites and Beltway political observers who dismiss these people and their MAGA hats, Mr. Towery thinks the rallies will pay huge dividends on Election Day. “Trump has an instinct for what a showman needs to show,” he says. He believes the rallies will prove particularly helpful in getting people out in the rural areas where the president needs every last vote.