There were more than 1 million mail ballots left to be counted as of 2:35 p.m., according to Pennsylvania’s Department of State. So far, 78 percent of mail ballots have broken for Biden and 21 percent have been won by Trump.

If that pace continues — and it’s a big if — Biden would take the lead. Looking at the amount of mail ballots Biden is winning as well as the places still to be fully counted, some Democratic elected officials and consultants, including Sen. Bob Casey, estimate Biden will carry Pennsylvania by about 100,000 votes in a tight race.

“Biden has been winning the absentee votes by a fairly steady margin, so the math is pretty simple,” said J.J. Balaban, a Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist. “There’s no reason to think that there is going to be a big change in the uncounted mail-in ballots from the ones that have been counted.”

Democrats also point to the fact that Biden is performing better than Hillary Clinton in places such as northeastern Pennsylvania’s Lackawanna County, where he was born. And he’s ahead of Trump by less than half a percentage point in Northampton County, one of three counties in the state that flipped to Trump in 2016 after twice voting for President Barack Obama.