In 2016, Trump was bested by Hillary Clinton among Florida’s Latinos by a decisive 62%-35% margin, while Trump held an edge among Cuban Americans, 54%-41%, according to a Pew Research survey. The vote this year is unpredictable, with polls varying wildly. An NBC-Marist survey last month showed an even split in Florida between Trump and Biden at 48% apiece, while Monmouth University gave Biden a huge 58%-32% advantage.
In early voting, both Democrats and Republicans report seeing a bigger shift to Trump this year among Cuban Americans and Venezuelan Americans in Florida.
“The Venezuelan collapse is a major boon for Republicans and has become baggage for Democrats, whether they deserve it or not — and I don’t think they do,” Isbell told RCP. “The Venezuela collapse has reignited that socialist-communist fear and paranoia in the communities.”
Isbell labeled New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, a self-described Democratic socialist, a “real bogey man or woman” in South Florida, fueling serious concerns that Biden is going to be taking orders from her and the left wing of the party. “When Republican Hispanics want to talk about socialism, they use her,” he added. “The argument is Biden’s going to be a puppet, a straw man for the real left wing.”