For all that, I still think the bad orange man has a shot. In fact, my guess is that he will be re-elected and that his margin in the Electoral College will be similar to the one he enjoyed last time, and perhaps even larger. If you seriously believe that Democrats are going to flip Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas together, you are in urgent need of attention from a licensed medical professional. Likewise if you believe that he is going to lose by as many as 11 points in any of the other states he won last time. Millions of people have not changed their minds about whether the guy who told Macaulay Culkin where the bathroom is should be our commander-in-chief.
Which is why a better question to ask is not whether his opponent will be able to speed up the inevitable transformation of the New South into a bastion of suburban liberalism, but whether Trump will be able to consolidate the gains he made last time. Even if he cannot, a loss is far from certain. If Arizona holds, Biden needs to flip back Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If Trump hangs on in even one of these states, he wins another narrow victory. This to say nothing of the distinct possibility that he could add Minnesota, where he appears to be doing considerably better than he was four years ago, when an apparent double-digit lead for Hillary Clinton metamorphosed on Election Day into a very thin margin.
Apart from his incumbent status and the enthusiasm of his most fervent supporters, who love him as no president has been loved since Kennedy or perhaps even FDR, the best thing Trump has going for him is the fact that he has an actual ground game.