Daily tracking of likely voters conducted Oct. 16-18 found 53 percent of likely voters who opted for someone other than a major-party nominee in 2016 said they’re backing Biden in this year’s election, while 21 percent said they’re supporting Trump. Another 14 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate again, while 12 percent are still undecided. The data is based on surveys with 359 likely voters who backed someone other than Trump or Clinton in 2016, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
Biden’s standing with the voting bloc has improved throughout the year, according to monthly averages of the daily polling, as fewer said they’ll reject the major-party choices. From May to October, the share who said they’d back Biden rose 8 points, to 50 percent, while the share who backed Trump (roughly 1 in 5) has remained virtually unchanged during the same time.