Among Democrats, 87% think Joe Biden is going to win the popular vote, including 63% who think he will win it by “a lot”. Yet among Republicans 65% think Donald Trump is set to pick up the most votes, including 40% who say he will win the popular vote by “a lot”.
At present YouGov’s election model has Biden on 53.2% of the popular vote, compared to Trump’s 44.7%.
Only 7% of Democrats think Trump is going to win the popular vote, while 16% of Republicans think Biden will do so.
When it comes to the Electoral College, Republicans are even more convinced of an impressive victory. Overall 81% think Trump will win the most EC delegates, including 54% who think he will win by “a lot”.