Among all registered voters in Arizona, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 44% for Trump. The contest stood at 48% to 44% one month ago and 46% to 43% in a poll taken shortly before the state’s presidential primary in March. Another 2% currently support Jo Jorgensen and 4% are undecided. Biden (42%) trails Trump (51%) among non-Hispanic white voters, but has a large advantage among the state’s sizable Latino electorate (66% to 28%).

Using a likely voter model with a relatively high level of turnout, the race stands at 51% for Biden and 44% for Trump. The race tightens to 49% Biden and 47% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout. Trump beat Hillary Clinton by just under 4 points in 2016. Arizona has given its electoral votes to the Democratic candidate just once (1996) in the past 70 years.

“Biden is currently on track to do slightly better than Clinton did with Latino voters and possibly white voters as well. Those shifts would be enough for a victory if these numbers hold,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.