I also asked Clement if he could drill down and tell me who these voters were who approved of Trump’s handling of the economy but disapproved of Trump as president and were overwhelmingly supportive of Biden. These voters were more diverse than the population overall (49 percent white, 21 percent Hispanic and 16 percent black). They were younger (almost half were ages 18-39) and almost evenly divided by gender (53 percent male to 47 percent female). On standard party ID, most (53 percent) identified as political independents. When pushed, these independents leaned more Democratic (56 percent) than Republican (25 percent).

In other words, these voters who liked what Trump was doing on the economy but didn’t like the job he was doing as president, look different than the kinds of voters who typically back the president. They are a group that’s more diverse, more female and younger than his traditional supporters. This leads to the chicken and egg question: would he be winning over these voters if he changed his style and approach? Or are these voters using Trump’s behavior as an excuse to vote the way they were always going to in the first place?

Either way, it’s clear that a strong economy alone wasn’t enough to turn Trump-skeptics into Trump voters.