As Trump’s ill-conceived outbursts start generating undeniable real-world consequences rather than eliciting fuzzy complaints about “civility” and “norms,” they could cost him his more weakly attached voters. More and more Republicans hear from previously Trump-loyal friends that that’s it, they’re through. That opens up emotional space for them to consider rejecting him, too.

With Trump’s numbers worsening, it will then become harder to maintain the illusion that Trump is somehow immune to normal political rules. By the time the poll numbers for removal inch up to somewhere in the range of 55 to 58 percent, it becomes clear Trump will almost certainly lose in 2020 — and worse, take the Senate down with him.

Now his support really begins to collapse, particularly among evangelical Christians. A hard core of Trump supporters, perhaps a quarter of the electorate, will stick with him to the bitter end. But he relies on another big chunk who don’t like him yet rely on him for regulatory and judicial protection from the social justice warriors.