Five observations on the politics of impeachment

The distribution of impeachment votes will affect the way impeachment is evaluated. We remember Clinton’s acquittal by the Senate as a foregone conclusion, but there was some concern about it at the time. One of the concerns was that if any Democratic senator supported his removal, others might follow suit. The key vote was Sen. Robert Byrd, who later claimed that announcing his vote to acquit felt like sandpaper in his throat. In the end, all Democrats in the Senate (and most Democrats in the House) voted against removal, reinforcing perceptions that impeachment was largely a partisan endeavor.

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Would a trial in 2020 follow a similar approach? Again, no one knows for sure. If the evidence becomes clear enough, one could see Republicans like Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski or Susan Collins break ranks with their party. Such a vote, however, would put these senators’ political future at stake.

More interesting, I think, is what the Democrats do. There are currently around 30 House Democrats representing districts that lean Republican, although some of these districts (including suburban districts in Texas) are less Republican now than the presidential topline might suggest. Only one Republican (John Katko) represents a Democratic-leaning district. There are also some Senate Democrats, like Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Doug Jones of Alabama, and Jon Tester of Montana, who will likely face enormous pressure from voters back home to oppose removing the president.

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