At the data analysis website FiveThirtyEight, Nathaniel Rakich asks the question “Could Corey Lewandowski Help Republicans Win The New Hampshire Senate Race?” The question itself is odd. Corey Lewandowski is a potential GOP Senate candidate, not campaign manager or fundraiser. The only way he could “help Republicans win” would be to actually win. To defeat Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in next year’s general election.

The headline appears to be a collision between two related questions. One is whether Lewandowski — or any other Republican candidate currently in the race — can beat Shaheen next year. Consensus answer among NHGOP insiders: Probably not.

The other question is whether Lewandowski, Trump’s pugnacious sidekick, helps or hurts the Republican Party by getting into the race. And on this question, there is no consensus. Some NHGOP’ers see Lewandowski as a disaster waiting to happen. Others see him as a potential bonus to the GOP 2020 strategy that is already taking shape.

Where you fall on the Corey question depends on whether you embrace the premise that the 2020 election is going to be all about Trump. From U.S. Senator to selectman, candidates will rise or fall based on how they’re impacted by the Trump effect, and any attempt to evade it is doomed to fail.