Taking the Arctic Seriously Might Be the Key to NATO’s Relevance

Since the Cold War, the United States and many of its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have regarded the Arctic as a barren wasteland with no geopolitical significance. But China’s rise and its strategic alliance with Moscow have made the region a tinderbox that could redefine global security. By ignoring the Arctic, NATO risks rendering itself irrelevant in the face of rising Russian and Chinese ambitions.

At the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, leaders focused on presenting a united front at a time of mounting internal arguments over how to prioritize growing security challenges from actors such as Russia, China, terrorists, and migrants. The difficult decisions on how to spend the 5 percent of GDP that the alliance’s member states agreed to allocate for military expenditures by 2035 have yet to take place. When these difficult talks take place, NATO must prioritize building a credible defense force posture in the Arctic, as Russia and China expand their strategic presence in the alliance’s northern flank.

Economically, Russia’s Arctic coastline has tremendous potential for shipping, energy, and fishing ventures. In 2024, the Arctic accounted for 7.5 percent of the country’s GDP. This figure is likely to increase. As sea ice is melting, Moscow is advertising the Northern Sea Route as a time- and money-saving link for the shipping industry, logging 38 million tons in 2024. The route is Russia’s national maritime waterway, generating substantial revenue from oil and liquefied natural gas extracted in the Arctic region and transported to Asia with costly icebreaker assistance. At an estimated $19.2 billion in 2025, Arctic fisheries are also an important source of revenue.

Rising Arctic commercial traffic creates control problems, threatening Moscow’s strategic assets. Russia has therefore been transforming its Arctic coast into a modern maritime fortress. Its growing fleet of submarines, including nuclear-powered ballistic missile subs lurking near the Barents Sea, poses a direct threat not just to regional stability but to the U.S. homeland. Moscow is also investing heavily in autonomous underwater vehicles and upgrading its Northern Fleet bases, aiming for sea denial and nuclear deterrence—trends that should concern Western defense officials.