The Squad probably doesn't need to worry about primary challengers

However, this doesn’t mean that any of them are in danger of losing reelection. All four sit in deeply Democratic seats with FiveThirtyEight partisan leans1 of D+52 or bluer. And among Democrats, their national net favorability ratings are excellent. Per Emerson, Ocasio-Cortez’s net favorability rating within the party is +37, Omar’s is +26, Tlaib’s is +31, and Pressley’s is +30.

That suggests that none of the four is particularly vulnerable to a primary challenger either — at least if Democrats in their districts are anything like Democrats nationally. And in fact, in Tlaib’s case, we actually have a recent poll that says she is even more popular among Democrats in her district. Last week, Target Insyght and MIRS News surveyed a possible Democratic primary in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District. Tlaib aced the test. The poll gave her a stellar +55 net favorability rating among Democratic voters in the district, who also approved of the job she was doing in Congress 76 percent to 14 percent. And in a head-to-head matchup with former Rep. Brenda Jones, whom Tlaib narrowly defeated in 2018’s six-way regular primary election,2 the poll gave Tlaib a 56 percent to 19 percent lead. Even in a three-way race including Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon, Tlaib maintained almost as big a lead over the next closest candidate.

Of the four, Tlaib is probably the most vulnerable of any of the Squad members to a primary challenge. And that’s because she won her first primary just 31 percent to 30 percent over Jones in 2018 — which, as I wrote in April, fits the profile of other first-term representatives who went on to lose their next primaries. By contrast, both Ocasio-Cortez (57 percent) and Pressley (58 percent) won their first primaries with a majority of the vote, and Omar (48 percent, but still 18 points ahead of her closest challenger) wasn’t far behind.